{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f4fdd3ba-de13-478e-b37a-6a7c0f4c08e5", "symbol": "PLMR", "name": "Palomar Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 53.095, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 57.894, "architecture_energy": 41.082, "architecture_maturity": 7.571, "architecture_confidence": 64.736, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.1, "rotation_up": 61.02, "upward_expansion": 78.05, "deceleration": 57.48, "rotation_down": 13.92, "downward_expansion": 4.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 133.986, 131.957818, 125.77081, 124.380602 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 131.0, "trend_reference": 123.668667, "distance_from_trend": 0.059282, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 104.800609, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.249993, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.18828, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.026485, "excess_performance": -0.160969, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.059282, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00076, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.249993, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.107389, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.071883, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.206074, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.026485, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.79491, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1683495, "relative_activity": 1.264556, "balance": 0.79491, "dry_up": 1.102157, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084872, "annualized_volatility": 0.365216, "from_high_reference": -0.112586, "from_low_reference": 0.299473 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 123.668667, "fair_value_reference": 104.800609, "structural_low": 100.8101, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.036871, "positive_rate": 0.56, "directional_follow_through": 0.56, "median_excess_return": -0.001189, "regime_survival": 0.64, "best_return": 0.243066, "worst_return": -0.310252, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.023043, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.092805, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.408069, "worst_return": -0.283477, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.048118, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.142384, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.504513, "worst_return": -0.339412, "sufficient": true }, { 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"gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.538681, "energy": 50.376742, "activity_lines": [ 133.721333, 125.843636, 122.280762, 122.329054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 137.56, "volume": 1183534, "typical_volume": 1321567.9, "trend": 123.526, "fair_value": 103.842147, "relative_strength": 2.28533, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.680998, "energy": 63.640311, "activity_lines": [ 136.272667, 128.953091, 123.826143, 123.240452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 133.79, "volume": 1189928, "typical_volume": 1337732.85, "trend": 123.591667, "fair_value": 104.324647, "relative_strength": -0.668793, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.709337, "energy": 64.063136, "activity_lines": [ 135.843333, 130.890182, 124.963714, 123.902645 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 131.0, "volume": 1683495, "typical_volume": 1331293.05, "trend": 123.668667, "fair_value": 104.800609, "relative_strength": -7.18828, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.894303, "energy": 41.082495, "activity_lines": [ 133.986, 131.957818, 125.77081, 124.380602 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }