{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f503d9f0-5529-4900-afd9-b056cfa57e59", "symbol": "LGGL", "name": "L&G Global Equity UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.534, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.862, "architecture_energy": 68.698, "architecture_maturity": 85.426, "architecture_confidence": 64.869, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.44, "rotation_up": 54.95, "upward_expansion": 83.0, "deceleration": 71.37, "rotation_down": 28.62, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.897, 23.788454, 23.426524, 22.936925 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 24.375, "trend_reference": 22.3655, "distance_from_trend": 0.089848, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.896378, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.28993, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.214201, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.145442, "excess_performance": -0.02545, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.089848, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04158, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.28993, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04098, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.032142, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00334, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.145442, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.106179, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 127856, "relative_activity": 1.43034, "balance": 2.106179, "dry_up": 1.487909, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017247, "annualized_volatility": 0.10875, "from_high_reference": -0.001229, "from_low_reference": 0.240837 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.3655, "fair_value_reference": 18.896378, "structural_low": 20.32, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": 0.014327, "positive_rate": 0.675, "directional_follow_through": 0.675, "median_excess_return": -0.003481, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.057149, "worst_return": -0.103824, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.040613, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": 0.003118, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.099858, "worst_return": -0.061158, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.084587, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.010954, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.150936, "worst_return": -0.085757, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 23.721666, 23.549545, 22.934357, 22.503709 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.674999, "volume": 40045, "typical_volume": 90835.3, "trend": 22.105833, "fair_value": 18.719442, "relative_strength": -2.945521, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.90454, "energy": 71.226353, "activity_lines": [ 23.737999, 23.604181, 23.059071, 22.610677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.725, "volume": 95178, "typical_volume": 87985.25, "trend": 22.193, "fair_value": 18.776077, "relative_strength": -2.509102, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.600414, "energy": 64.953672, "activity_lines": [ 23.745666, 23.649272, 23.178143, 22.71514 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.530001, "volume": 268929, "typical_volume": 94410.2, "trend": 22.274333, "fair_value": 18.833179, "relative_strength": -3.873847, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.375131, "energy": 60.444639, "activity_lines": [ 23.683667, 23.644363, 23.26769, 22.801398 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.375, "volume": 127856, "typical_volume": 89388.55, "trend": 22.3655, "fair_value": 18.896378, "relative_strength": -3.214201, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.861605, "energy": 68.69752, "activity_lines": [ 23.897, 23.788454, 23.426524, 22.936925 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }