{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f507b4fb-afa4-4230-99b7-afc0dfc1213f", "symbol": "600358", "name": "China Tourism And Culture Investment Group Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.236, "architecture_energy": 60.993, "architecture_maturity": 21.63, "architecture_confidence": 86.288, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.93, "rotation_up": 15.09, "upward_expansion": 11.38, "deceleration": 44.09, "rotation_down": 68.43, "downward_expansion": 87.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.039333, 5.159273, 5.51581, 5.717204 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 5.21, "trend_reference": 5.923, "distance_from_trend": -0.120378, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.759295, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.0947, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.440216, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.176935, "excess_performance": -0.133731, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.120378, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030658, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.0947, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.232852, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.104402, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073144, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.176935, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.624399, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36481867, "relative_activity": 0.890895, "balance": 0.624399, "dry_up": 0.735779, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087406, "annualized_volatility": 0.356139, "from_high_reference": -0.266197, "from_low_reference": 0.099156 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.923, "fair_value_reference": 4.759295, "structural_low": 4.74, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.035362, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": 0.021667, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.227273, "worst_return": -0.262791, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.023857, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.005192, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.452962, "worst_return": -0.232179, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.023301, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.022922, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.43299, "worst_return": -0.407332, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.091772, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.058201, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.136038, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.261494, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.38964, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 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"modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.68332, "energy": 74.582111, "activity_lines": [ 5.002667, 5.191091, 5.57381, 5.765032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.21, "volume": 36481867, "typical_volume": 40949664.95, "trend": 5.923, "fair_value": 4.759295, "relative_strength": -10.440216, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.236304, "energy": 60.993299, "activity_lines": [ 5.039333, 5.159273, 5.51581, 5.717204 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }