{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f509854e-6755-4d40-8ff5-3b07d1df6554", "symbol": "CDLR", "name": "Cadeler A/S", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 62.641, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.486, "architecture_energy": 20.609, "architecture_maturity": 20.305, "architecture_confidence": 60.993, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.49, "rotation_up": 24.74, "upward_expansion": 14.72, "deceleration": 44.77, "rotation_down": 24.66, "downward_expansion": 57.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.052, 22.698, 23.782476, 24.151161 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 23.64, "trend_reference": 24.358667, "distance_from_trend": -0.029504, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.885942, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.080145, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.383918, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.032337, "excess_performance": -0.157962, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.029504, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062754, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.080145, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.282357, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.053839, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.273544, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.032337, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.690985, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 186522, "relative_activity": 0.428516, "balance": 0.690985, "dry_up": 0.868286, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079412, "annualized_volatility": 0.355895, "from_high_reference": -0.212263, "from_low_reference": 0.538061 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.358667, "fair_value_reference": 21.885942, "structural_low": 20.5, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.012509, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.031849, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.192586, "worst_return": -0.011459, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.04566, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.198254, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.04566, "worst_return": -0.04566, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.087642, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.292155, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.195201, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.132508, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.192586, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.157224, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.069634, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020749, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.040951, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-12-22", "close": 18.14, "volume": 1459281, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, 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"fair_value": 21.851385, "relative_strength": -6.727313, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.415863, "energy": 19.775803, "activity_lines": [ 24.554, 25.880909, 25.61519, 24.846925 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 21.68, "volume": 316019, "typical_volume": 451070.3, "trend": 23.483667, "fair_value": 21.850076, "relative_strength": -11.366849, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.369642, "energy": 39.46923, "activity_lines": [ 23.258, 25.042182, 25.263571, 24.742946 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 21.11, "volume": 494189, "typical_volume": 440014.35, "trend": 23.603667, "fair_value": 21.84447, "relative_strength": -11.364925, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.933211, "energy": 49.653886, "activity_lines": [ 22.249333, 24.174909, 24.868238, 24.589806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 22.17, "volume": 626083, "typical_volume": 443830.15, "trend": 23.716, "fair_value": 21.846917, "relative_strength": -8.734138, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.911835, "energy": 58.059752, "activity_lines": [ 21.967333, 23.572727, 24.589667, 24.497312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 22.43, "volume": 539674, "typical_volume": 458801.6, "trend": 23.863667, "fair_value": 21.851269, "relative_strength": -8.728435, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.450087, "energy": 60.02031, "activity_lines": [ 22.014, 23.094364, 24.353619, 24.414344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.21, "volume": 582648, "typical_volume": 457529.85, "trend": 24.019667, "fair_value": 21.861333, "relative_strength": -3.933257, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.428868, "energy": 38.49279, "activity_lines": [ 22.412, 22.863455, 24.211905, 24.372172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.63, "volume": 319022, "typical_volume": 449589.75, "trend": 24.132, "fair_value": 21.866985, "relative_strength": -5.52915, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.977694, "energy": 26.406008, "activity_lines": [ 22.582, 22.642727, 24.025952, 24.282516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.71, "volume": 423579, "typical_volume": 449554.35, "trend": 24.254, "fair_value": 21.873139, "relative_strength": -6.061285, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.459102, "energy": 27.771273, "activity_lines": [ 22.715333, 22.549455, 23.855048, 24.190774 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.64, "volume": 186522, "typical_volume": 435274.3, "trend": 24.358667, "fair_value": 21.885942, "relative_strength": -5.383918, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.486024, "energy": 20.60872, "activity_lines": [ 23.052, 22.698, 23.782476, 24.151161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }