{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f50bddbb-537b-4002-84c4-7f5d502f812b", "symbol": "000913", "name": "Zhejiang Qianjiang Motorcycle Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.026, "architecture_energy": 29.662, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 83.161, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.51, "rotation_up": 27.79, "upward_expansion": 22.01, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 32.88, "downward_expansion": 63.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.272667, 11.062727, 11.435874, 12.083911 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 11.48, "trend_reference": 12.976392, "distance_from_trend": -0.115316, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.984198, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.179073, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.717755, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.228804, "excess_performance": -0.236203, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.115316, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.08916, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.179073, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06395, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.217178, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.091984, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.228804, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.722735, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27183856, "relative_activity": 0.958191, "balance": 0.722735, "dry_up": 1.120508, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069254, "annualized_volatility": 0.360478, "from_high_reference": -0.36097, "from_low_reference": 0.145709 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.976392, "fair_value_reference": 13.984198, "structural_low": 10.02, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.030589, "positive_rate": 0.392857, "directional_follow_through": 0.607143, "median_excess_return": -0.012405, "regime_survival": 0.821429, "best_return": 0.499027, "worst_return": -0.15488, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.127532, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.037176, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 1.101852, "worst_return": -0.210526, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.038556, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.126572, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.659357, "worst_return": -0.310863, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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12.606273 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.83, "volume": 29871276, "typical_volume": 28413181.55, "trend": 13.298933, "fair_value": 14.056096, "relative_strength": -25.171831, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.892143, "energy": 79.212435, "activity_lines": [ 10.645333, 10.905605, 11.71454, 12.439063 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.56, "volume": 27934755, "typical_volume": 28461329.3, "trend": 13.163295, "fair_value": 14.02525, "relative_strength": -26.60543, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.565688, "energy": 81.180716, "activity_lines": [ 10.582, 10.797597, 11.528537, 12.262357 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.0, "volume": 42165290, "typical_volume": 28350236.95, "trend": 13.082632, "fair_value": 14.007167, "relative_strength": -14.640031, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.972862, "energy": 45.164583, "activity_lines": [ 11.068, 10.981636, 11.499507, 12.187306 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.48, "volume": 27183856, "typical_volume": 28369987.65, "trend": 12.976392, "fair_value": 13.984198, "relative_strength": -21.717755, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.026376, "energy": 29.66212, "activity_lines": [ 11.272667, 11.062727, 11.435874, 12.083911 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }