{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f50d35b5-91b6-4262-844d-e909af3f7a4c", "symbol": "002984", "name": "Qingdao Sentury Tire Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.959, "architecture_energy": 40.521, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 93.561, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.01, "rotation_up": 27.61, "upward_expansion": 18.83, "deceleration": 46.98, "rotation_down": 39.78, "downward_expansion": 68.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.19, 14.072347, 14.69536, 15.631142 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 14.17, "trend_reference": 17.070451, "distance_from_trend": -0.169911, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.670471, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.314481, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.358301, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.307429, "excess_performance": -0.314829, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.169911, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.113334, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.314481, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.103955, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.253583, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044072, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.307429, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.361466, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 50825385, "relative_activity": 1.080116, "balance": 0.361466, "dry_up": 1.149205, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071997, "annualized_volatility": 0.253206, "from_high_reference": -0.386314, "from_low_reference": 0.075114 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.070451, "fair_value_reference": 20.670471, "structural_low": 13.18, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.030628, "positive_rate": 0.6875, "directional_follow_through": 0.3125, "median_excess_return": -0.01234, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.127316, "worst_return": -0.120619, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.019556, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.050837, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.161954, "worst_return": -0.205866, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.052131, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.106519, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.283322, "worst_return": -0.111467, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"volume": 49678849, "typical_volume": 45750675.0, "trend": 17.511118, "fair_value": 20.763723, "relative_strength": -26.292356, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.387496, "energy": 63.030214, "activity_lines": [ 13.763968, 14.001198, 14.941203, 16.010813 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.76, "volume": 62387945, "typical_volume": 46722172.75, "trend": 17.303785, "fair_value": 20.720708, "relative_strength": -18.922063, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.339907, "energy": 48.757761, "activity_lines": [ 14.119333, 14.083032, 14.836043, 15.833321 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.17, "volume": 50825385, "typical_volume": 47055483.9, "trend": 17.070451, "fair_value": 20.670471, "relative_strength": -25.358301, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.958506, "energy": 40.520637, "activity_lines": [ 14.19, 14.072347, 14.69536, 15.631142 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }