{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f510bd3e-3b04-45d4-8212-d89f05e66418", "symbol": "XSMW", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI World Materials UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 77.91, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 12.318, "architecture_energy": 10.81, "architecture_maturity": 15.669, "architecture_confidence": 63.546, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 65.26, "rotation_up": 27.06, "upward_expansion": 15.45, "deceleration": 58.69, "rotation_down": 40.27, "downward_expansion": 38.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 57.615667, 57.640545, 58.033595, 57.999247 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 60.105, "trend_reference": 57.839333, "distance_from_trend": 0.039172, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 48.421467, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.241288, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.728894, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.061551, "excess_performance": 0.010315, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.039172, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042501, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.241288, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021338, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.017289, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061091, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.061551, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.672746, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3053, "relative_activity": 0.929433, "balance": 0.672746, "dry_up": 0.632991, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033887, "annualized_volatility": 0.235598, "from_high_reference": -0.083993, "from_low_reference": 0.298077 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 57.839333, "fair_value_reference": 48.421467, "structural_low": 51.41, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.005785, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.014777, "regime_survival": 0.357143, "best_return": 0.070736, "worst_return": -0.258211, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.014366, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.021521, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.156925, "worst_return": -0.187174, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.021019, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.0777, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.157321, "worst_return": -0.132578, "sufficient": true 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58.291976, 58.043989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 55.689999, "volume": 1239, "typical_volume": 3765.45, "trend": 57.329333, "fair_value": 48.372187, "relative_strength": -2.800483, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.688867, "energy": 28.925847, "activity_lines": [ 57.023999, 57.788454, 58.052952, 57.947032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 56.950001, "volume": 2074, "typical_volume": 3665.55, "trend": 57.491166, "fair_value": 48.376308, "relative_strength": -1.923575, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.084151, "energy": 31.138398, "activity_lines": [ 56.819, 57.56, 57.964309, 57.922559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 56.220001, "volume": 1951, "typical_volume": 3437.35, "trend": 57.645166, "fair_value": 48.384087, "relative_strength": -4.423001, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.790477, "energy": 45.665851, "activity_lines": [ 56.503334, 57.23, 57.813, 57.840548 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 60.105, "volume": 3053, "typical_volume": 3284.8, "trend": 57.839333, "fair_value": 48.421467, "relative_strength": 1.728894, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.317817, "energy": 10.810472, "activity_lines": [ 57.615667, 57.640545, 58.033595, 57.999247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }