{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "f5213884-7a7d-4cbf-ac8b-92ce81b08344",
    "symbol": "VUSD",
    "name": "Vanguard S&P 500 UCITS ETF",
    "exchange": "LSE",
    "country": "GB",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FTSE",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 95.552,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 83.74,
    "architecture_energy": 59.763,
    "architecture_maturity": 60.253,
    "architecture_confidence": 72.108,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 28.93,
        "rotation_up": 53.19,
        "upward_expansion": 80.0,
        "deceleration": 67.67,
        "rotation_down": 27.26,
        "downward_expansion": 9.0
      },
      "activity_lines": [
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        138.473533
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 147.037506,
    "trend_reference": 135.3604,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.086267,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 110.779461,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.327299,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 3.141876,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.126964,
    "excess_performance": 0.075729,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.086267,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.034453,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.327299,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.004266,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.031419,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.023913,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.126964,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.477327,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 446187,
      "relative_activity": 0.938807,
      "balance": 1.477327,
      "dry_up": 1.094167,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.01966,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.128697,
      "from_high_reference": -0.004519,
      "from_low_reference": 0.230632
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 135.3604,
      "fair_value_reference": 110.779461,
      "structural_low": 120.709999,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 38,
        "median_return": 0.014538,
        "positive_rate": 0.710526,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.710526,
        "median_excess_return": 0.008953,
        "regime_survival": 0.763158,
        "best_return": 0.062715,
        "worst_return": -0.085525,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
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        "worst_return": -0.063875,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
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        "regime_survival": 0.625,
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        "worst_return": -0.158101,
        "sufficient": true
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      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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        "worst_return": -0.091791,
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      {
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      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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      },
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 701881,
        "typical_volume": 501986.6,
        "trend": 134.1042,
        "fair_value": 109.628386,
        "relative_strength": 2.15888,
        "stage": 2,
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        "direction": 60.748916,
        "energy": 54.564192,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 141.130005,
        "volume": 693231,
        "typical_volume": 507754.05,
        "trend": 134.456967,
        "fair_value": 109.992274,
        "relative_strength": 0.567681,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 52.004304,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 140.955002,
        "volume": 238801,
        "typical_volume": 475792.3,
        "trend": 134.839807,
        "fair_value": 110.362159,
        "relative_strength": -0.78125,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 47.739217,
        "energy": 42.622537,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 147.037506,
        "volume": 446187,
        "typical_volume": 475270.2,
        "trend": 135.3604,
        "fair_value": 110.779461,
        "relative_strength": 3.141876,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 83.739708,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}