{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f52531cf-36cd-4eff-bad4-54d47b38feff", "symbol": "603601", "name": "Chongqing Zaisheng Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 64.038, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.473, "architecture_energy": 74.684, "architecture_maturity": 27.228, "architecture_confidence": 70.509, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.82, "rotation_up": 8.9, "upward_expansion": 16.85, "deceleration": 37.65, "rotation_down": 76.73, "downward_expansion": 92.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.818, 10.069984, 12.596186, 12.960538 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 9.88, "trend_reference": 13.006037, "distance_from_trend": -0.240353, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.721845, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.726716, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.927678, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.127208, "excess_performance": -0.084005, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.240353, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.113906, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.726716, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.875624, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.009277, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.142442, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.127208, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.413101, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 658751432, "relative_activity": 0.878392, "balance": 1.413101, "dry_up": 0.598027, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.285253, "annualized_volatility": 0.953894, "from_high_reference": -0.579833, "from_low_reference": 1.235294 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.006037, "fair_value_reference": 5.721845, "structural_low": 6.86, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.037607, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.043322, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.029437, "worst_return": -0.104651, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.16193, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.173691, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.116883, "worst_return": -0.206977, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.311804, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.249277, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.267548, "worst_return": -0.35606, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.275846, 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"2024-01-19", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.221147, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.092024, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.063023, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.172524, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.088398, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.060519, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"relative_strength": -11.502552, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.184105, "energy": 61.255261, "activity_lines": [ 10.651333, 12.786326, 14.131678, 13.858351 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.94, "volume": 397607118, "typical_volume": 784040909.5, "trend": 13.271037, "fair_value": 5.661516, "relative_strength": -16.546456, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.780492, "energy": 67.286444, "activity_lines": [ 9.416667, 11.584303, 13.539102, 13.509145 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.98, "volume": 338051933, "typical_volume": 757904958.45, "trend": 13.09237, "fair_value": 5.686023, "relative_strength": -17.048435, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -46.269544, "energy": 71.663989, "activity_lines": [ 8.664, 10.551714, 12.968525, 13.167788 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.88, "volume": 658751432, "typical_volume": 749951858.9, "trend": 13.006037, "fair_value": 5.721845, "relative_strength": -0.927678, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.47275, "energy": 74.684068, "activity_lines": [ 8.818, 10.069984, 12.596186, 12.960538 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }