{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f5387caf-1ddb-4270-a849-b689051839bc", "symbol": "ESGR-B", "name": "ES Energy Save Holding AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 77.118, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -19.962, "architecture_energy": 33.643, "architecture_maturity": 10.332, "architecture_confidence": 69.411, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.34, "rotation_up": 17.88, "upward_expansion": 22.65, "deceleration": 50.91, "rotation_down": 56.49, "downward_expansion": 45.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.76, 16.72, 17.461905, 16.794624 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 15.05, "trend_reference": 15.911667, "distance_from_trend": -0.054153, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.654167, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.413351, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.258715, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.086643, "excess_performance": 0.025148, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.054153, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013912, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.413351, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.219939, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.182587, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.327396, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.086643, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.492434, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11854, "relative_activity": 0.36768, "balance": 0.492434, "dry_up": 0.531149, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.184258, "annualized_volatility": 0.798239, "from_high_reference": -0.516077, "from_low_reference": 0.447115 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.911667, "fair_value_reference": 25.654167, "structural_low": 10.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.179005, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.214851, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.022857, "worst_return": -0.303905, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.291429, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.334611, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.171779, "worst_return": -0.304734, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.317791, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.315094, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.065714, "worst_return": -0.408284, "sufficient": false }, { 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.13069, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.359467, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.204275, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.228571, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.162455, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-22", 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expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.622749, "energy": 15.193901, "activity_lines": [ 18.056667, 18.320909, 17.799286, 16.814086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.65, "volume": 5588, "typical_volume": 34940.7, "trend": 16.103333, "fair_value": 25.789103, "relative_strength": 4.435432, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.525429, "energy": 15.544983, "activity_lines": [ 18.13, 18.35, 18.006905, 16.98086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.9, "volume": 34691, "typical_volume": 34244.7, "trend": 16.06, "fair_value": 25.742949, "relative_strength": -17.334081, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.590732, "energy": 7.955847, "activity_lines": [ 17.04, 17.74, 17.822857, 16.903226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.3, "volume": 16364, "typical_volume": 33225.95, "trend": 15.973333, "fair_value": 25.699359, "relative_strength": -15.799908, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.205557, "energy": 10.994081, "activity_lines": [ 16.346667, 17.228182, 17.665, 16.854193 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.05, "volume": 11854, "typical_volume": 32240.0, "trend": 15.911667, "fair_value": 25.654167, "relative_strength": -18.258715, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.961988, "energy": 33.643311, "activity_lines": [ 15.76, 16.72, 17.461905, 16.794624 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }