{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f53d1b12-d2d1-48b3-a1e0-80840590d58c", "symbol": "TASA4", "name": "Taurus Armas S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 53.467, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -22.744, "architecture_energy": 12.38, "architecture_maturity": 20.375, "architecture_confidence": 69.765, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.51, "rotation_up": 21.21, "upward_expansion": 20.35, "deceleration": 45.97, "rotation_down": 31.1, "downward_expansion": 51.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.798, 4.797455, 4.758102, 4.860403 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 4.71, "trend_reference": 5.015301, "distance_from_trend": -0.060874, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.184088, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.424493, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.610113, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.105691, "excess_performance": -0.048642, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.060874, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001259, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.424493, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026145, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.076101, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.163761, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.105691, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.666133, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1045900, "relative_activity": 0.926822, "balance": 0.666133, "dry_up": 0.745804, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07823, "annualized_volatility": 0.392145, "from_high_reference": -0.223557, "from_low_reference": 0.160099 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.015301, "fair_value_reference": 8.184088, "structural_low": 4.06, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.040166, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.037525, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.209155, "worst_return": -0.169976, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.065621, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.108805, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.034691, "worst_return": -0.289283, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.098711, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.139352, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.045983, "worst_return": -0.440078, "sufficient": true }, 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.386776, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.144667, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.258268, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009293, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.041818, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": 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"modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.437683, "energy": 19.249283, "activity_lines": [ 4.746, 4.659818, 4.796465, 4.925108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 4.98, "volume": 1292900, "typical_volume": 1414695.0, "trend": 5.024553, "fair_value": 8.391126, "relative_strength": -7.839772, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.650964, "energy": 24.298211, "activity_lines": [ 4.866, 4.718909, 4.796102, 4.92252 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.79, "volume": 729300, "typical_volume": 1303080.0, "trend": 5.028986, "fair_value": 8.342039, "relative_strength": -8.337419, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.998095, "energy": 21.274151, "activity_lines": [ 4.877333, 4.741273, 4.780057, 4.907387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.78, "volume": 651100, "typical_volume": 1206775.0, "trend": 5.031753, "fair_value": 8.291235, "relative_strength": -8.023242, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.692662, "energy": 15.958055, "activity_lines": [ 4.84, 4.763273, 4.767994, 4.891324 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.88, "volume": 940200, "typical_volume": 1150165.0, "trend": 5.03752, "fair_value": 8.236002, "relative_strength": -7.617766, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.816434, "energy": 11.236526, "activity_lines": [ 4.844, 4.799455, 4.770056, 4.881533 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.71, "volume": 1045900, "typical_volume": 1128480.0, "trend": 5.015301, "fair_value": 8.184088, "relative_strength": -7.610113, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.744277, "energy": 12.380088, "activity_lines": [ 4.798, 4.797455, 4.758102, 4.860403 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }