{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f55b5ee0-52df-4b99-b2a7-00e0a9d6b11a", "symbol": "301215", "name": "CATARC Automotive Proving Ground Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.05, "architecture_energy": 49.993, "architecture_maturity": 81.68, "architecture_confidence": 88.569, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.08, "rotation_up": 25.77, "upward_expansion": 8.02, "deceleration": 60.71, "rotation_down": 49.12, "downward_expansion": 79.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.190667, 5.214727, 5.465681, 5.706496 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.24, "trend_reference": 6.067789, "distance_from_trend": -0.136423, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.849218, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.104154, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.013487, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.235886, "excess_performance": -0.243286, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.136423, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066168, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.104154, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.190114, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.190135, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004298, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.235886, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.267279, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 79304138, "relative_activity": 1.755222, "balance": 0.267279, "dry_up": 1.327568, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 7 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066913, "annualized_volatility": 0.253575, "from_high_reference": -0.318057, "from_low_reference": 0.058586 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.067789, "fair_value_reference": 5.849218, "structural_low": 4.95, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.003215, "positive_rate": 0.533333, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.013257, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.235644, "worst_return": -0.15787, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.024848, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.005473, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.264173, "worst_return": -0.182782, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.148521, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.080731, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.255005, "worst_return": -0.093178, "sufficient": false }, { 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-26.52477, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.044835, "energy": 82.448851, "activity_lines": [ 5.266667, 5.435906, 5.721626, 5.974246 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.03, "volume": 50505947, "typical_volume": 44409146.1, "trend": 6.226953, "fair_value": 5.868032, "relative_strength": -20.689463, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.041592, "energy": 73.722222, "activity_lines": [ 5.186667, 5.324781, 5.632021, 5.89454 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.0, "volume": 55115190, "typical_volume": 43513206.7, "trend": 6.168661, "fair_value": 5.860929, "relative_strength": -20.885529, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.574947, "energy": 67.144547, "activity_lines": [ 5.108, 5.232974, 5.54996, 5.815382 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.36, "volume": 55002382, "typical_volume": 43434590.8, "trend": 6.119071, "fair_value": 5.854414, "relative_strength": -13.375172, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.489083, "energy": 56.898168, "activity_lines": [ 5.172667, 5.227982, 5.510746, 5.76321 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.24, "volume": 79304138, "typical_volume": 45181817.8, "trend": 6.067789, "fair_value": 5.849218, "relative_strength": -19.013487, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.050123, "energy": 49.993077, "activity_lines": [ 5.190667, 5.214727, 5.465681, 5.706496 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }