{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f564450d-b9b1-414f-b0b6-b6d46cd1b63d", "symbol": "002651", "name": "Chengdu Leejun Industrial Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.41, "architecture_energy": 51.283, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.989, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.33, "rotation_up": 27.89, "upward_expansion": 8.53, "deceleration": 60.93, "rotation_down": 47.35, "downward_expansion": 79.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.564564, 7.583311, 8.032779, 8.508871 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.73, "trend_reference": 9.282438, "distance_from_trend": -0.167245, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.138558, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.0502, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.039325, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.288214, "excess_performance": -0.295613, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.167245, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.116323, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.0502, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.268662, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.290393, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013982, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.288214, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.330474, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32213706, "relative_activity": 0.960809, "balance": 0.330474, "dry_up": 1.264489, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07811, "annualized_volatility": 0.290794, "from_high_reference": -0.536293, "from_low_reference": 0.114942 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.282438, "fair_value_reference": 8.138558, "structural_low": 6.933094, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.005359, "positive_rate": 0.56, "directional_follow_through": 0.44, "median_excess_return": -0.032723, "regime_survival": 0.76, "best_return": 0.272171, "worst_return": -0.286136, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.037162, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.084626, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.303117, "worst_return": -0.332667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.130388, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.069516, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.229396, "worst_return": -0.243043, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.12, "volume": 43412496, "typical_volume": 35488863.35, "trend": 9.674772, "fair_value": 8.137282, "relative_strength": -34.430269, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.804526, "energy": 71.175521, "activity_lines": [ 7.443055, 7.715483, 8.335015, 8.883859 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.28, "volume": 46715930, "typical_volume": 33450796.65, "trend": 9.543105, "fair_value": 8.136246, "relative_strength": -32.327678, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.333207, "energy": 66.206466, "activity_lines": [ 7.360422, 7.582335, 8.189952, 8.729358 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.81, "volume": 47239380, "typical_volume": 33779938.85, "trend": 9.414438, "fair_value": 8.137469, "relative_strength": -25.437638, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.888848, "energy": 58.679173, "activity_lines": [ 7.492162, 7.58155, 8.110032, 8.617545 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.73, "volume": 32213706, "typical_volume": 33527686.65, "trend": 9.282438, "fair_value": 8.138558, "relative_strength": -29.039325, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.409759, "energy": 51.283381, "activity_lines": [ 7.564564, 7.583311, 8.032779, 8.508871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }