{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f56a6bb9-a359-46c4-a968-50dca3beef92", "symbol": "JPNY", "name": "Amundi Index Solutions - Amundi JPX-Nikkei 400", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 59.681, "architecture_energy": 37.402, "architecture_maturity": 60.067, "architecture_confidence": 79.215, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.62, "rotation_up": 42.59, "upward_expansion": 69.1, "deceleration": 82.66, "rotation_down": 27.26, "downward_expansion": 16.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 45519.776042, 45579.739773, 45018.533724, 44255.401285 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 46248.328125, "trend_reference": 43308.954948, "distance_from_trend": 0.06787, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 32740.966872, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.412552, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 7.161707, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.097303, "excess_performance": 0.043991, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.06787, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061954, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.412552, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005479, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.071617, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104129, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.097303, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.163563, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 243, "relative_activity": 0.349615, "balance": 5.163563, "dry_up": 0.471908, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024944, "annualized_volatility": 0.191002, "from_high_reference": -0.012727, "from_low_reference": 0.436459 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 43308.954948, "fair_value_reference": 32740.966872, "structural_low": 39246.878906, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.012655, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.009998, "regime_survival": 0.416667, "best_return": 0.066497, "worst_return": -0.036105, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.019292, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.005336, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.139417, "worst_return": -0.090252, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.068272, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.023731, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.20069, "worst_return": -0.030287, "sufficient": true }, { 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45580.201042, 45528.621023, 44694.412426, 43930.196976 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44727.410156, "volume": 228, "typical_volume": 797.45, "trend": 43075.080859, "fair_value": 32603.154648, "relative_strength": 6.613375, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.339726, "energy": 35.62611, "activity_lines": [ 45267.971875, 45420.284375, 44793.717281, 44050.675655 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46248.328125, "volume": 243, "typical_volume": 695.05, "trend": 43308.954948, "fair_value": 32740.966872, "relative_strength": 7.161707, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.681047, "energy": 37.401718, "activity_lines": [ 45519.776042, 45579.739773, 45018.533724, 44255.401285 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }