{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f56caac7-b11d-4236-a1d0-5a45188f8ee0", "symbol": "NIKE34", "name": "NIKE, Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.79, "architecture_energy": 45.98, "architecture_maturity": 96.607, "architecture_confidence": 85.687, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.85, "rotation_up": 21.83, "upward_expansion": 6.05, "deceleration": 56.09, "rotation_down": 52.54, "downward_expansion": 77.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.475334, 21.834546, 22.054468, 23.18004 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 21.360001, "trend_reference": 25.408113, "distance_from_trend": -0.159324, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 38.798367, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.449461, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -32.526337, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.345772, "excess_performance": -0.288724, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.159324, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.13284, "read": "Falling" 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20.354959, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.001766, "positive_rate": 0.46875, "directional_follow_through": 0.53125, "median_excess_return": -0.012781, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.22799, "worst_return": -0.178148, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.032135, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.079533, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.39851, "worst_return": -0.287534, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.007988, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.075059, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.386193, "worst_return": -0.374765, "sufficient": true }, { 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26.275421, "fair_value": 39.163977, "relative_strength": -36.513261, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.566068, "energy": 46.973705, "activity_lines": [ 21.962667, 22.23947, 22.357524, 23.802859 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.12, "volume": 125728, "typical_volume": 233886.05, "trend": 25.858285, "fair_value": 38.981549, "relative_strength": -36.424417, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.014064, "energy": 46.880347, "activity_lines": [ 21.682, 22.003586, 22.176967, 23.470252 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.360001, "volume": 146742, "typical_volume": 235907.3, "trend": 25.408113, "fair_value": 38.798367, "relative_strength": -32.526337, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.789816, "energy": 45.980154, "activity_lines": [ 21.475334, 21.834546, 22.054468, 23.18004 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }