{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f5724edc-08d4-452f-9207-866271f94aca", "symbol": "QAH", "name": "Mackenzie US Large Cap Equity Index ETF (CAD-Hedged)", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 84.336, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.476, "architecture_energy": 64.719, "architecture_maturity": 59.501, "architecture_confidence": 77.949, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.19, "rotation_up": 57.4, "upward_expansion": 83.68, "deceleration": 64.88, "rotation_down": 27.75, "downward_expansion": 10.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 243.273335, 241.972067, 239.839234, 235.361845 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 249.350006, "trend_reference": 230.444553, "distance_from_trend": 0.082039, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 191.493595, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.302132, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.488146, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.11087, "excess_performance": -0.009552, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.082039, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029896, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.302132, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002991, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.014881, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001318, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.11087, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.290909, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9900, "relative_activity": 2.117647, "balance": 5.290909, "dry_up": 0.994652, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016731, "annualized_volatility": 0.13397, "from_high_reference": -8e-05, "from_low_reference": 0.216935 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 230.444553, "fair_value_reference": 191.493595, "structural_low": 204.899994, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.011588, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.002114, "regime_survival": 0.794872, "best_return": 0.06081, "worst_return": -0.120303, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.039044, "positive_rate": 0.785714, "directional_follow_through": 0.785714, "median_excess_return": -0.018264, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.135607, "worst_return": -0.057985, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.063106, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.009154, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.171953, "worst_return": -0.172267, "sufficient": true }, { 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"typical_volume": 4610.0, "trend": 227.959209, "fair_value": 189.003876, "relative_strength": -1.92572, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.931241, "energy": 63.734346, "activity_lines": [ 241.047555, 240.771919, 235.79154, 231.902872 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 240.119995, "volume": 4000, "typical_volume": 4685.0, "trend": 228.579979, "fair_value": 189.609933, "relative_strength": -2.682081, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.378686, "energy": 57.862778, "activity_lines": [ 240.858398, 240.718509, 236.747899, 232.687439 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 238.179993, "volume": 700, "typical_volume": 4520.0, "trend": 229.035191, "fair_value": 190.194775, "relative_strength": -3.535123, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.100384, "energy": 49.28396, "activity_lines": [ 239.980662, 240.272272, 237.432306, 233.306794 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 241.210007, "volume": 4000, "typical_volume": 4520.0, "trend": 229.671544, "fair_value": 190.811058, "relative_strength": -1.735277, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.851197, "energy": 46.759631, "activity_lines": [ 240.377999, 240.385001, 238.311277, 234.092266 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 249.350006, "volume": 9900, "typical_volume": 4675.0, "trend": 230.444553, "fair_value": 191.493595, "relative_strength": -1.488146, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.476126, "energy": 64.719099, "activity_lines": [ 243.273335, 241.972067, 239.839234, 235.361845 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }