{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f57b2f5d-26dd-41b0-9cf2-da9a4c4fca2d", "symbol": "MLGAI", "name": "Grande Armee Investissement SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.754, "architecture_energy": 38.199, "architecture_maturity": 41.471, "architecture_confidence": 80.059, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.22, "rotation_up": 25.34, "upward_expansion": 5.56, "deceleration": 58.06, "rotation_down": 40.95, "downward_expansion": 74.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 137.0, 137.072727, 144.019048, 147.266667 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 137.0, "trend_reference": 149.2, "distance_from_trend": -0.081769, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 110.035256, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.245055, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.74673, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.055172, "excess_performance": -0.108484, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.081769, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.061832, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.245055, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.431084, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.107467, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.403175, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.055172, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.055901, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 1.055901, "dry_up": 0.150685, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073554, "annualized_volatility": 0.516423, "from_high_reference": -0.293814, "from_low_reference": 0.256881 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 149.2, "fair_value_reference": 110.035256, "structural_low": 130.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.010064, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.402778, "worst_return": -0.082803, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.20625, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.098355, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.278481, "worst_return": 0.045977, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.18125, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.204283, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.252874, "worst_return": 0.101266, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.01, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.147368, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.330275, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.213793, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"close": 137.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 17.75, "trend": 156.533333, "fair_value": 107.477564, "relative_strength": -6.109767, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.51128, "energy": 63.465217, "activity_lines": [ 141.066667, 149.2, 154.619048, 154.692473 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 137.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 17.75, "trend": 155.7, "fair_value": 107.842949, "relative_strength": -5.929938, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.77497, "energy": 72.834485, "activity_lines": [ 138.466667, 145.563636, 152.990476, 153.432258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 137.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 17.75, "trend": 154.866667, "fair_value": 108.208333, "relative_strength": -7.49078, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.192029, "energy": 74.477531, "activity_lines": [ 137.266667, 142.636364, 151.4, 152.225806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 137.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 17.75, "trend": 154.033333, "fair_value": 108.573718, "relative_strength": -5.87553, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.545313, "energy": 67.29597, "activity_lines": [ 137.333333, 140.418182, 149.847619, 151.073118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 137.0, "volume": 11, "typical_volume": 18.3, "trend": 152.133333, "fair_value": 108.939103, "relative_strength": -6.131794, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.169066, "energy": 58.352586, "activity_lines": [ 137.0, 138.909091, 148.333333, 149.974194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 137.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 18.3, "trend": 151.366667, "fair_value": 109.304487, "relative_strength": -6.758148, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.124904, "energy": 45.371578, "activity_lines": [ 137.0, 138.109091, 146.857143, 148.997849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 137.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 18.25, "trend": 149.466667, "fair_value": 109.669872, "relative_strength": -8.429286, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.328966, "energy": 41.308453, "activity_lines": [ 137.0, 137.4, 145.419048, 148.070968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 137.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 18.25, "trend": 149.2, "fair_value": 110.035256, "relative_strength": -10.74673, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.753662, "energy": 38.198764, "activity_lines": [ 137.0, 137.072727, 144.019048, 147.266667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }