{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f57f9f47-562b-474e-9cc8-1b292c52a95f", "symbol": "9623", "name": "Al Battal Factory for Chemical Industries Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -77.766, "architecture_energy": 87.61, "architecture_maturity": 30.0, "architecture_confidence": 84.004, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.53, "rotation_up": 8.99, "upward_expansion": 20.68, "deceleration": 37.04, "rotation_down": 83.78, "downward_expansion": 98.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.533333, 13.462727, 14.375143, 15.166021 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 12.0, "trend_reference": 16.451, "distance_from_trend": -0.270561, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 31.13894, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.61463, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.92136, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.444444, "excess_performance": -0.412615, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.270561, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111749, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.61463, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.126706, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.379214, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040489, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.444444, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0807, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9126, "relative_activity": 0.297305, "balance": 0.0807, "dry_up": 0.187428, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.110705, "annualized_volatility": 0.547501, "from_high_reference": -0.69278, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.451, "fair_value_reference": 31.13894, "structural_low": 12.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.180328, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.182564, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.180328, "worst_return": -0.180328, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.180328, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2025-01-03", "close": 58.648987, "volume": 181328, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-10", "close": 57.170441, "volume": 50430, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": 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"stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 14.64, "volume": 4749, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 14.64, "volume": 39, "typical_volume": 33755.0, "trend": 17.381667, "fair_value": 32.063262, "relative_strength": -31.402803, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.434729, "energy": 46.335591, "activity_lines": [ 14.870667, 15.23, 15.514429, 16.302301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.47, "volume": 1052, "typical_volume": 30965.8, "trend": 17.197333, "fair_value": 31.846062, "relative_strength": -29.959711, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.9749, "energy": 48.124318, "activity_lines": [ 14.722, 15.021636, 15.364286, 16.114452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.14, "volume": 7888, "typical_volume": 30893.8, "trend": 16.938333, "fair_value": 31.605744, "relative_strength": -40.100515, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.599912, "energy": 72.280729, "activity_lines": [ 13.818667, 14.444727, 15.014286, 15.788172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.0, "volume": 4947, "typical_volume": 30377.35, "trend": 16.705, "fair_value": 31.36953, "relative_strength": -38.05682, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.3081, "energy": 81.430759, "activity_lines": [ 13.059333, 13.920909, 14.680429, 15.46957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.0, "volume": 9126, "typical_volume": 30695.8, "trend": 16.451, "fair_value": 31.13894, "relative_strength": -37.92136, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.766147, "energy": 87.610047, "activity_lines": [ 12.533333, 13.462727, 14.375143, 15.166021 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }