{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "f58407cb-3187-431b-af22-e0413a2269c9",
    "symbol": "KAT",
    "name": "Katana Capital Limited",
    "exchange": "ASX",
    "country": "AU",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^AXJO",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 75.685,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 47.707,
    "architecture_energy": 28.864,
    "architecture_maturity": 20.584,
    "architecture_confidence": 57.963,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 37.66,
        "rotation_up": 47.2,
        "upward_expansion": 67.79,
        "deceleration": 60.26,
        "rotation_down": 18.26,
        "downward_expansion": 8.79
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        1.379,
        1.379248,
        1.370645,
        1.366888
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 1.385,
    "trend_reference": 1.364268,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.015196,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 1.21663,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.13839,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -2.329141,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.011074,
    "excess_performance": -0.052632,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.015196,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.010501,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.13839,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.004962,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.023291,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.055985,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.011074,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.260316,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 4593,
      "relative_activity": 0.414052,
      "balance": 1.260316,
      "dry_up": 1.568292,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.017458,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.110901,
      "from_high_reference": -0.034843,
      "from_low_reference": 0.111604
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 1.364268,
      "fair_value_reference": 1.21663,
      "structural_low": 1.325,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 35,
        "median_return": 0.004255,
        "positive_rate": 0.514286,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.514286,
        "median_excess_return": -0.002434,
        "regime_survival": 0.742857,
        "best_return": 0.058823,
        "worst_return": -0.043478,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 14,
        "median_return": 0.011802,
        "positive_rate": 0.714286,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.714286,
        "median_excess_return": 0.017878,
        "regime_survival": 0.357143,
        "best_return": 0.095677,
        "worst_return": -0.048403,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 9,
        "median_return": 0.036844,
        "positive_rate": 0.888889,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.888889,
        "median_excess_return": 0.017683,
        "regime_survival": 0.666667,
        "best_return": 0.095084,
        "worst_return": -0.069753,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.061401,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.038701,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.140272,
        "worst_return": 0.008654,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-01-12",
        "end": "2024-03-08",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.013215,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-03-15",
        "end": "2024-03-29",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.012987,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-04-05",
        "end": "2024-08-30",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.03406,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-09-06",
        "end": "2024-12-06",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.016633,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2025-01-31",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.004049,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-02-07",
        "end": "2025-02-21",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.008333,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-02-28",
        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.008474,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-06-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.021276,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-07-18",
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        "return": 0.037292,
        "active": false
      },
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-07-25",
        "end": "2025-11-28",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.079682,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2026-01-23",
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        "active": false
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        "return": -0.018182,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "return": 0.010949,
        "active": true
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        "energy": 19.271425,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "close": 1.38,
        "volume": 8,
        "typical_volume": 16650.65,
        "trend": 1.351724,
        "fair_value": 1.189133,
        "relative_strength": 5.920743,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
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        "energy": 38.193989,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 18691.6,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 18691.6,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "volume": 9702,
        "typical_volume": 17182.55,
        "trend": 1.351258,
        "fair_value": 1.198879,
        "relative_strength": 5.033018,
        "stage": 3,
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        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "mixed",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 1.374926,
        "volume": 10508,
        "typical_volume": 14867.4,
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        "relative_strength": 3.428565,
        "stage": 3,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "relative_strength": 3.889266,
        "stage": 3,
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        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 41.533781,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.367288,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 1.399835,
        "volume": 12,
        "typical_volume": 13772.8,
        "trend": 1.3556,
        "fair_value": 1.206991,
        "relative_strength": 4.19528,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch",
        "gate": "up",
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        "activity_lines": [
          1.379908,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 1.37,
        "volume": 1505,
        "typical_volume": 13795.25,
        "trend": 1.356604,
        "fair_value": 1.208941,
        "relative_strength": 2.232902,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 54.722879,
        "energy": 57.003662,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.378266,
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          1.361356
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 1.4,
        "volume": 63365,
        "typical_volume": 14933.8,
        "trend": 1.359269,
        "fair_value": 1.211022,
        "relative_strength": 4.344638,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 69.925898,
        "energy": 67.354508,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.386288,
          1.376141,
          1.366802,
          1.364155
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 1.37,
        "volume": 625,
        "typical_volume": 14944.9,
        "trend": 1.360934,
        "fair_value": 1.212757,
        "relative_strength": 2.225342,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 53.575521,
        "energy": 47.471027,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.382639,
          1.376692,
          1.367663,
          1.364848
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 1.37,
        "volume": 1004,
        "typical_volume": 11432.15,
        "trend": 1.362434,
        "fair_value": 1.214615,
        "relative_strength": -0.206509,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 49.60438,
        "energy": 27.37108,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.377989,
          1.376879,
          1.3685,
          1.365433
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 1.385,
        "volume": 4593,
        "typical_volume": 11092.8,
        "trend": 1.364268,
        "fair_value": 1.21663,
        "relative_strength": -2.329141,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 47.706657,
        "energy": 28.863762,
        "activity_lines": [
          1.379,
          1.379248,
          1.370645,
          1.366888
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}