{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f588d7be-fb28-4312-a49d-ab606a477c70", "symbol": "PCEU", "name": "Amundi PEA MSCI Europe UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.061, "architecture_energy": 71.284, "architecture_maturity": 40.081, "architecture_confidence": 90.116, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.57, "rotation_up": 63.49, "upward_expansion": 86.82, "deceleration": 52.6, "rotation_down": 22.26, "downward_expansion": 13.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.088333, 39.828091, 39.112643, 38.509226 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 40.700001, "trend_reference": 37.881834, "distance_from_trend": 0.074394, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 31.959489, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.273487, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.506845, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.093939, "excess_performance": 0.040628, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.074394, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040133, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.273487, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063786, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.045068, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013517, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.093939, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.843425, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 73234, "relative_activity": 0.839019, "balance": 1.843425, "dry_up": 0.838295, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01958, "annualized_volatility": 0.148137, "from_high_reference": -0.004768, "from_low_reference": 0.243508 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.881834, "fair_value_reference": 31.959489, "structural_low": 33.900002, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.012853, "positive_rate": 0.605263, "directional_follow_through": 0.605263, "median_excess_return": 0.00071, "regime_survival": 0.815789, "best_return": 0.073999, "worst_return": -0.054947, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.023441, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.004935, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.078837, "worst_return": -0.033584, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.071633, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.037286, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.152609, "worst_return": -0.113254, "sufficient": true }, { 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"gate": "up", "direction": 66.110502, "energy": 80.291288, "activity_lines": [ 39.576333, 39.111818, 38.294238, 37.879946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 39.5, "volume": 78763, "typical_volume": 109263.7, "trend": 37.48, "fair_value": 31.697534, "relative_strength": 6.65239, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.524194, "energy": 77.192851, "activity_lines": [ 39.602333, 39.262364, 38.469429, 38.018871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 39.740002, "volume": 71143, "typical_volume": 98014.9, "trend": 37.618334, "fair_value": 31.779297, "relative_strength": 6.625848, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.299164, "energy": 72.990507, "activity_lines": [ 39.672667, 39.41791, 38.662024, 38.164678 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.009998, "volume": 69543, "typical_volume": 93254.45, "trend": 37.751167, "fair_value": 31.86731, "relative_strength": 5.408076, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.403213, "energy": 57.94914, "activity_lines": [ 39.791333, 39.574909, 38.863691, 38.318979 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.700001, "volume": 73234, "typical_volume": 87285.25, "trend": 37.881834, "fair_value": 31.959489, "relative_strength": 4.506845, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.061254, "energy": 71.284084, "activity_lines": [ 40.088333, 39.828091, 39.112643, 38.509226 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }