{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f58b12b2-6286-4e22-a138-9ca0a4c9fcf9", "symbol": "AURE3", "name": "Auren Energia S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -71.102, "architecture_energy": 71.156, "architecture_maturity": 16.604, "architecture_confidence": 85.109, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.51, "rotation_up": 12.75, "upward_expansion": 17.52, "deceleration": 34.69, "rotation_down": 72.01, "downward_expansion": 88.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.183333, 11.476727, 11.973905, 12.100473 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 10.81, "trend_reference": 12.112667, "distance_from_trend": -0.107546, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.054602, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.022127, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.059811, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.051754, "excess_performance": 0.005294, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.107546, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005991, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.022127, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.263974, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.110598, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.162691, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.051754, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.185434, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23584500, "relative_activity": 1.862215, "balance": 0.185434, "dry_up": 1.29722, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075002, "annualized_volatility": 0.346848, "from_high_reference": -0.262619, "from_low_reference": 0.141499 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.112667, "fair_value_reference": 11.054602, "structural_low": 10.55, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.014607, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.03997, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.098999, "worst_return": -0.033927, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.010297, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.041179, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.073415, "worst_return": -0.136104, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.037888, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.028043, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.222469, "worst_return": -0.267319, "sufficient": false }, { 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"blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.026696, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.059197, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.070408, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.112975, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.103514, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.204506, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.138408, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.087308, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.128139, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.067299, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 11.774022, "volume": 13436700, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, 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"regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.843879, "energy": 42.059075, "activity_lines": [ 11.698, 11.974, 12.40881, 12.310817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 13.03, "volume": 12848100, "typical_volume": 13440745.0, "trend": 12.199333, "fair_value": 11.079341, "relative_strength": 3.187842, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 11.370927, "energy": 14.498858, "activity_lines": [ 12.147333, 12.096727, 12.468619, 12.366065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.59, "volume": 20010900, "typical_volume": 13482680.0, "trend": 12.186333, "fair_value": 11.074221, "relative_strength": -6.014307, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.231718, "energy": 11.581978, "activity_lines": [ 12.032667, 11.973273, 12.385048, 12.326753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.19, "volume": 9178900, "typical_volume": 12565860.0, "trend": 12.161333, "fair_value": 11.068257, "relative_strength": -9.242088, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.237482, "energy": 19.258073, "activity_lines": [ 11.798, 11.816909, 12.264667, 12.262473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.98, "volume": 12941600, "typical_volume": 12272240.0, "trend": 12.139667, "fair_value": 11.061725, "relative_strength": -12.659998, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.506087, "energy": 31.39922, "activity_lines": [ 11.5, 11.648909, 12.125762, 12.186258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.81, "volume": 23584500, "typical_volume": 12664760.0, "trend": 12.112667, "fair_value": 11.054602, "relative_strength": -11.059811, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.102495, "energy": 71.156243, "activity_lines": [ 11.183333, 11.476727, 11.973905, 12.100473 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }