{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f5909039-7b69-4d23-8571-5ce3f7dbe26c", "symbol": "TCH-F124", "name": "Tachlit Index Sal Ltd. - Tachlit SAL (4D) MSCI AC World", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.8, "architecture_energy": 63.063, "architecture_maturity": 95.0, "architecture_confidence": 58.031, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.74, "rotation_up": 27.98, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 44.36, "downward_expansion": 65.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.016667, 39.616364, 1004.254286, 1701.012688 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 40.41, "trend_reference": 2501.775, "distance_from_trend": -0.983847, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3277.161859, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.987669, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.826358, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.989244, "excess_performance": -1.018144, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.983847, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.333038, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.987669, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.073676, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.988264, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.744679, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.989244, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.611134, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 74358, "relative_activity": 0.546879, "balance": 1.611134, "dry_up": 1.401823, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.308873, "annualized_volatility": 6.34933, "from_high_reference": -0.989561, "from_low_reference": 0.0682 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2501.775, "fair_value_reference": 3277.161859, "structural_low": 37.83, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.011436, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": -0.006542, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.060406, "worst_return": -0.053544, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.025864, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.044566, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.105508, "worst_return": -0.989355, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.059149, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.081253, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.074105, "worst_return": -0.067562, "sufficient": false }, 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1631.079333, 2226.08271 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 39.86, "volume": 111200, "typical_volume": 124615.35, "trend": 2752.594667, "fair_value": 3314.14, "relative_strength": -98.926994, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.633568, "energy": 67.552857, "activity_lines": [ 39.571333, 240.263273, 1404.723238, 2042.955441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.0, "volume": 499140, "typical_volume": 138218.35, "trend": 2627.928, "fair_value": 3295.729744, "relative_strength": -98.866071, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.232352, "energy": 66.921087, "activity_lines": [ 39.766667, 106.157091, 1195.804952, 1867.949333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.41, "volume": 74358, "typical_volume": 135967.95, "trend": 2501.775, "fair_value": 3277.161859, "relative_strength": -98.826358, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.799716, "energy": 63.063058, "activity_lines": [ 40.016667, 39.616364, 1004.254286, 1701.012688 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }