{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f5927dd6-66c7-4164-9bf7-bbdd29f0058e", "symbol": "LI", "name": "Li Auto\u00a0Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.574, "architecture_energy": 43.631, "architecture_maturity": 84.906, "architecture_confidence": 63.971, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.28, "rotation_up": 26.87, "upward_expansion": 19.21, "deceleration": 66.91, "rotation_down": 42.43, "downward_expansion": 69.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.834, 12.711818, 13.988571, 14.95557 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 12.95, "trend_reference": 15.987333, "distance_from_trend": -0.189984, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.639872, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.474429, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -38.32763, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.317343, "excess_performance": -0.504797, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.189984, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.095159, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.474429, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.155066, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.383276, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065452, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.317343, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.650511, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12307250, "relative_activity": 0.661245, "balance": 0.650511, "dry_up": 0.980386, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.108465, "annualized_volatility": 0.379441, "from_high_reference": -0.52214, "from_low_reference": 0.111588 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.987333, "fair_value_reference": 24.639872, "structural_low": 11.65, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.0297, "positive_rate": 0.48, "directional_follow_through": 0.52, "median_excess_return": -0.014939, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.599399, "worst_return": -0.244677, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.071406, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.142908, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.751052, "worst_return": -0.273303, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.145442, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.017039, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.647966, "worst_return": -0.327646, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.036637, "energy": 89.552995, "activity_lines": [ 12.361333, 13.409091, 15.140857, 15.873269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.39, "volume": 23320783, "typical_volume": 19103866.65, "trend": 16.409, "fair_value": 25.21891, "relative_strength": -41.950736, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.649056, "energy": 85.210391, "activity_lines": [ 12.246667, 13.020364, 14.781381, 15.604065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.12, "volume": 15426724, "typical_volume": 19132005.6, "trend": 16.231667, "fair_value": 25.022756, "relative_strength": -41.011953, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.01569, "energy": 77.506113, "activity_lines": [ 12.169333, 12.684545, 14.420952, 15.327355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.63, "volume": 21933959, "typical_volume": 19047347.95, "trend": 16.111, "fair_value": 24.816282, "relative_strength": -32.91143, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.79725, "energy": 55.139449, "activity_lines": [ 12.668, 12.739455, 14.228333, 15.159505 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.95, "volume": 12307250, "typical_volume": 18612235.25, "trend": 15.987333, "fair_value": 24.639872, "relative_strength": -38.32763, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.574328, "energy": 43.631371, "activity_lines": [ 12.834, 12.711818, 13.988571, 14.95557 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }