{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f594ba1a-de61-4827-9227-9d7de5a7b6a0", "symbol": "DXJZ", "name": "WisdomTree Japan Equity UCITS ETF - USD Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 74.168, "architecture_energy": 46.223, "architecture_maturity": 66.764, "architecture_confidence": 64.702, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.04, "rotation_up": 49.7, "upward_expansion": 79.49, "deceleration": 68.07, "rotation_down": 26.77, "downward_expansion": 6.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.319333, 38.200455, 37.590667, 37.004989 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 39.205002, "trend_reference": 36.302166, "distance_from_trend": 0.079963, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.732212, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.364496, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.664337, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.104833, "excess_performance": -0.066059, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.079963, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063094, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.364496, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045144, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.006643, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020063, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.104833, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.089374, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19211, "relative_activity": 1.41206, "balance": 1.089374, "dry_up": 0.97742, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029706, "annualized_volatility": 0.202469, "from_high_reference": -0.002036, "from_low_reference": 0.337826 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.302166, "fair_value_reference": 28.732212, "structural_low": 32.785, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.00372, "positive_rate": 0.567568, "directional_follow_through": 0.567568, "median_excess_return": -0.002388, "regime_survival": 0.783784, "best_return": 0.076358, "worst_return": -0.059509, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.014509, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.011802, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.205497, "worst_return": -0.033029, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.061249, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.018849, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.228614, "worst_return": -0.043397, "sufficient": true }, { 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35.6875, "fair_value": 28.42516, "relative_strength": -2.253962, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.861844, "energy": 48.431951, "activity_lines": [ 38.003667, 37.812546, 37.020357, 36.517742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 38.244999, "volume": 4072, "typical_volume": 13034.75, "trend": 35.904333, "fair_value": 28.523558, "relative_strength": 0.613386, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.936904, "energy": 48.106725, "activity_lines": [ 38.031333, 37.929545, 37.209833, 36.682742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.799999, "volume": 15436, "typical_volume": 13093.95, "trend": 36.105833, "fair_value": 28.622596, "relative_strength": -1.322006, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.975074, "energy": 33.792119, "activity_lines": [ 37.934999, 37.946273, 37.341214, 36.805043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.205002, "volume": 19211, "typical_volume": 13604.95, "trend": 36.302166, "fair_value": 28.732212, "relative_strength": -0.664337, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.168071, "energy": 46.222601, "activity_lines": [ 38.319333, 38.200455, 37.590667, 37.004989 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }