{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f594e705-ce39-4a8a-9245-9ca4c38254d6", "symbol": "NXPI", "name": "NXP Semiconductors N.V.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 60.327, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -16.526, "architecture_energy": 33.615, "architecture_maturity": 57.398, "architecture_confidence": 89.218, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.61, "rotation_up": 14.02, "upward_expansion": 44.04, "deceleration": 86.95, "rotation_down": 50.15, "downward_expansion": 35.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 220.59, 233.294417, 239.548294, 228.965335 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 207.050003, "trend_reference": 216.478085, "distance_from_trend": -0.043552, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 197.290174, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.049469, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.411943, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.102155, "excess_performance": -0.072092, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.043552, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.101849, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.049469, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.246531, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.164119, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.285552, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.102155, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.181159, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 546, "relative_activity": 0.797663, "balance": 2.181159, "dry_up": 0.671658, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090081, "annualized_volatility": 0.471332, "from_high_reference": -0.298122, "from_low_reference": 0.327772 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 216.478085, "fair_value_reference": 197.290174, "structural_low": 162.513168, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.066327, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.060465, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.131579, "worst_return": -0.189787, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.043974, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.02133, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.240267, "worst_return": -0.025787, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.072454, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.045334, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.235584, "worst_return": -0.13396, "sufficient": 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196.544915, "relative_strength": -3.907128, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.911249, "energy": 27.799051, "activity_lines": [ 244.484922, 252.648954, 241.688437, 228.319391 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 237.75, "volume": 371, "typical_volume": 935.45, "trend": 215.650081, "fair_value": 196.862651, "relative_strength": -1.728585, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.265899, "energy": 26.713075, "activity_lines": [ 240.45667, 249.168926, 243.055281, 229.845003 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 211.399994, "volume": 427, "typical_volume": 778.3, "trend": 216.434772, "fair_value": 197.067225, "relative_strength": -12.347467, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -9.832738, "energy": 21.989461, "activity_lines": [ 229.983333, 241.125343, 241.615861, 229.570804 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 207.050003, "volume": 546, "typical_volume": 684.5, "trend": 216.478085, "fair_value": 197.290174, "relative_strength": -16.411943, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -16.526024, "energy": 33.614527, "activity_lines": [ 220.59, 233.294417, 239.548294, 228.965335 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }