{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f59bfe6d-4671-4f33-876b-cd1f9c649a73", "symbol": "ATR", "name": "AptarGroup Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 68.271, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 37.256, "architecture_energy": 61.941, "architecture_maturity": 11.607, "architecture_confidence": 70.097, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.31, "rotation_up": 76.31, "upward_expansion": 59.59, "deceleration": 12.37, "rotation_down": 14.5, "downward_expansion": 27.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 133.197018, 129.725286, 125.421308, 125.612973 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 135.42, "trend_reference": 126.551028, "distance_from_trend": 0.070082, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 136.854519, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.010482, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.917459, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.012211, "excess_performance": -0.113414, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.070082, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014876, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.010482, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.099677, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.049175, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.151189, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.012211, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.771993, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2840489, "relative_activity": 1.192772, "balance": 1.771993, "dry_up": 1.094669, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049289, "annualized_volatility": 0.260899, "from_high_reference": -0.074603, "from_low_reference": 0.321893 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 126.551028, "fair_value_reference": 136.854519, "structural_low": 110.95, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.036287, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.001508, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.055525, "worst_return": -0.0977, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.093305, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.176788, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.045024, "worst_return": -0.192602, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.065192, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.191918, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.069292, "worst_return": -0.199676, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"mixed", "direction": 31.120508, "energy": 45.145333, "activity_lines": [ 129.453835, 125.601871, 123.215941, 124.482421 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 133.96, "volume": 3097965, "typical_volume": 2417291.35, "trend": 126.134047, "fair_value": 136.745205, "relative_strength": -3.102374, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.694942, "energy": 56.208812, "activity_lines": [ 131.363096, 127.692033, 124.262937, 125.01388 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 135.42, "volume": 2840489, "typical_volume": 2381417.3, "trend": 126.551028, "fair_value": 136.854519, "relative_strength": -4.917459, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.255919, "energy": 61.941107, "activity_lines": [ 133.197018, 129.725286, 125.421308, 125.612973 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }