{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "f59c0839-602a-45c9-9736-08534908c0d3",
    "symbol": "XEC",
    "name": "iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets IMI Index ETF",
    "exchange": "TOR",
    "country": "CA",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GSPTSE",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 74.556,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 24.059,
    "architecture_energy": 23.124,
    "architecture_maturity": 65.037,
    "architecture_confidence": 83.062,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 51.41,
        "rotation_up": 20.69,
        "upward_expansion": 54.06,
        "deceleration": 91.13,
        "rotation_down": 38.54,
        "downward_expansion": 20.06
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        42.802667,
        43.542818,
        43.422027,
        42.480628
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.0
    },
    "latest_close": 43.380001,
    "trend_reference": 41.295988,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.050465,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 31.129866,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.393517,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -0.116981,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.108896,
    "excess_performance": -0.011526,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.050465,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.067348,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.393517,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.096769,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.00117,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.101862,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.108896,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.014367,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 217400,
      "relative_activity": 0.668872,
      "balance": 1.014367,
      "dry_up": 1.315514,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.048955,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.262234,
      "from_high_reference": -0.080586,
      "from_low_reference": 0.342293
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 41.295988,
      "fair_value_reference": 31.129866,
      "structural_low": 36.43,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 12,
        "median_return": 0.008863,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.032866,
        "regime_survival": 0.583333,
        "best_return": 0.136079,
        "worst_return": -0.016231,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.054189,
        "positive_rate": 0.8,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.8,
        "median_excess_return": 0.02201,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.276387,
        "worst_return": -0.010576,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.063529,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.019788,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.267941,
        "worst_return": 0.018029,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.126458,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.002331,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.185737,
        "worst_return": 0.067179,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-01-05",
        "end": "2024-08-09",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.111523,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-08-16",
        "end": "2024-09-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.058188,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-04",
        "end": "2024-11-15",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.043891,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-11-22",
        "end": "2024-12-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.025395,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-01-03",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.015234,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-04-18",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.002505,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-25",
        "end": "2025-05-09",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.03982,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-05-16",
        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.017725,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-05-30",
        "end": "2025-12-05",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.208356,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-12-12",
        "end": "2026-01-09",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.075448,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-01-16",
        "end": "2026-03-13",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.031763,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-03-20",
        "end": "2026-04-17",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.136079,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-04-24",
        "end": "2026-07-17",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.018982,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-07-24",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.026017,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "typical_volume": 474965.0,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "relative_strength": 6.351621,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 42.009998,
        "volume": 773100,
        "typical_volume": 438285.0,
        "trend": 40.71081,
        "fair_value": 30.781186,
        "relative_strength": -0.083626,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 41.954956,
        "energy": 31.05436,
        "activity_lines": [
          44.117006,
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          43.229926,
          42.139819
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 42.279999,
        "volume": 314000,
        "typical_volume": 352360.0,
        "trend": 40.931988,
        "fair_value": 30.891884,
        "relative_strength": 0.226006,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 34.659788,
        "energy": 21.280395,
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          43.286665,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 42.380001,
        "volume": 405800,
        "typical_volume": 340970.0,
        "trend": 41.114655,
        "fair_value": 31.006127,
        "relative_strength": 0.820742,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 26.472819,
        "energy": 22.828895,
        "activity_lines": [
          42.791333,
          43.661647,
          43.315739,
          42.334477
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 43.380001,
        "volume": 217400,
        "typical_volume": 325025.0,
        "trend": 41.295988,
        "fair_value": 31.129866,
        "relative_strength": -0.116981,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 24.058551,
        "energy": 23.124231,
        "activity_lines": [
          42.802667,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}