{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f59c8a89-11e2-41b7-b61b-d519b8291d4c", "symbol": "TRIB", "name": "Trinity Biotech plc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.339, "architecture_energy": 52.444, "architecture_maturity": 88.618, "architecture_confidence": 91.173, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.09, "rotation_up": 18.54, "upward_expansion": 7.82, "deceleration": 57.4, "rotation_down": 61.17, "downward_expansion": 81.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.041279, 11.770172, 14.435453, 16.117348 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 12.43, "trend_reference": 18.379502, "distance_from_trend": -0.323703, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 42.905047, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.71029, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -56.05473, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.482083, "excess_performance": -0.669537, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.323703, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.202587, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.71029, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050354, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.560547, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.144323, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.482083, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.253885, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 54478, "relative_activity": 0.012488, "balance": 0.253885, "dry_up": 0.204562, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.284987, "annualized_volatility": 1.016076, "from_high_reference": -0.879554, "from_low_reference": 0.565491 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.379502, "fair_value_reference": 42.905047, "structural_low": 7.94, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": -0.051194, "positive_rate": 0.309524, "directional_follow_through": 0.690476, "median_excess_return": -0.058958, "regime_survival": 0.880952, "best_return": 0.540364, "worst_return": -0.404923, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.183583, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.205346, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.388889, "worst_return": -0.560908, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.365019, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.499348, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.12963, "worst_return": -0.688948, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.264706, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.19598, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.141732, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.4225, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.427505, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": 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"fair_value": 45.303027, "relative_strength": -64.324885, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.556674, "energy": 88.40211, "activity_lines": [ 11.3124, 13.997455, 16.254857, 17.734084 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.44506, "volume": 2114227, "typical_volume": 4506043.7, "trend": 19.058502, "fair_value": 44.411873, "relative_strength": -69.241388, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.416654, "energy": 90.799733, "activity_lines": [ 10.04782, 12.676647, 15.361106, 17.002991 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.6, "volume": 268842, "typical_volume": 4403893.6, "trend": 18.698969, "fair_value": 43.561906, "relative_strength": -57.545229, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.611053, "energy": 72.542416, "activity_lines": [ 10.431883, 12.089228, 14.831724, 16.521797 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.43, "volume": 54478, "typical_volume": 4362421.85, "trend": 18.379502, "fair_value": 42.905047, "relative_strength": -56.05473, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.339454, "energy": 52.444467, "activity_lines": [ 11.041279, 11.770172, 14.435453, 16.117348 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }