{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f5a2eac9-0708-4859-8147-5ad0ff4aeffa", "symbol": "MENA", "name": "Mena Transport Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.596, "architecture_energy": 58.3, "architecture_maturity": 22.294, "architecture_confidence": 66.687, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.72, "rotation_up": 69.9, "upward_expansion": 85.2, "deceleration": 48.07, "rotation_down": 13.27, "downward_expansion": 9.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.748, 0.731455, 0.696479, 0.68643 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.79, "trend_reference": 0.684772, "distance_from_trend": 0.153669, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.140671, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.307425, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.28269, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.13896, "excess_performance": -0.053365, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.153669, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020969, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.307425, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.168749, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.092827, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.217523, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.13896, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.911865, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 49060500, "relative_activity": 7.985595, "balance": 5.911865, "dry_up": 2.404326, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074976, "annualized_volatility": 0.407126, "from_high_reference": -0.258109, "from_low_reference": 0.338983 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.684772, "fair_value_reference": 1.140671, "structural_low": 0.59, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.00644, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.004063, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.067568, "worst_return": -0.054688, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.085937, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.052361, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.085937, "worst_return": -0.085937, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.21875, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.029322, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.21875, "worst_return": -0.21875, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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4018945.0, "trend": 0.68501, "fair_value": 1.156965, "relative_strength": -18.587017, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.154524, "energy": 54.318893, "activity_lines": [ 0.726667, 0.702364, 0.672774, 0.674891 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.71, "volume": 3499300, "typical_volume": 3937780.0, "trend": 0.683277, "fair_value": 1.151201, "relative_strength": -21.316579, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.656834, "energy": 49.242669, "activity_lines": [ 0.724667, 0.707818, 0.677704, 0.676503 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.73, "volume": 1620800, "typical_volume": 3883685.0, "trend": 0.682862, "fair_value": 1.145743, "relative_strength": -17.374766, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.423176, "energy": 42.655543, "activity_lines": [ 0.727333, 0.715455, 0.684414, 0.679518 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.79, "volume": 49060500, "typical_volume": 6143625.0, "trend": 0.684772, "fair_value": 1.140671, "relative_strength": -9.28269, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.596462, "energy": 58.299545, "activity_lines": [ 0.748, 0.731455, 0.696479, 0.68643 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }