{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f5a48c34-f0c6-4cdc-83c6-093987e38d65", "symbol": "KLSO", "name": "Kelso Group Holdings Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 85.066, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 53.291, "architecture_energy": 23.391, "architecture_maturity": 30.748, "architecture_confidence": 66.841, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.1, "rotation_up": 42.32, "upward_expansion": 72.33, "deceleration": 61.93, "rotation_down": 25.81, "downward_expansion": 6.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.031213, 0.031058, 0.030844, 0.030351 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.033, "trend_reference": 0.02992, "distance_from_trend": 0.102941, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.029689, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.111507, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.607242, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.157895, "excess_performance": 0.106659, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.102941, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00956, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.111507, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032396, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.016072, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004819, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.157895, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.264157, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4437320, "relative_activity": 1.824501, "balance": 1.264157, "dry_up": 1.518667, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.107086, "annualized_volatility": 0.395418, "from_high_reference": -0.029412, "from_low_reference": 0.486486 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.02992, "fair_value_reference": 0.029689, "structural_low": 0.0222, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.029389, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.259259, "worst_return": -0.25, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.033898, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.025799, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.322034, "worst_return": -0.425, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.04537, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.051924, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.271186, "worst_return": -0.3875, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.016949, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.077007, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.2249, "worst_return": -0.275, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.086957, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.044118, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.064516, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.064257, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.083636, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.12069, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016393, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Established", 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0.02986, "fair_value": 0.029604, "relative_strength": -0.978028, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.195018, "energy": 20.773831, "activity_lines": [ 0.0311, 0.031064, 0.03054, 0.03014 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.03, "volume": 3577114, "typical_volume": 2134184.3, "trend": 0.029843, "fair_value": 0.029617, "relative_strength": -6.603037, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.04236, "energy": 12.975708, "activity_lines": [ 0.0307, 0.030873, 0.030555, 0.030149 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0298, "volume": 2352182, "typical_volume": 2239156.3, "trend": 0.029837, "fair_value": 0.029635, "relative_strength": -8.029981, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.002202, "energy": 11.016391, "activity_lines": [ 0.0304, 0.030664, 0.030548, 0.030146 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.033, "volume": 4437320, "typical_volume": 2432072.95, "trend": 0.02992, "fair_value": 0.029689, "relative_strength": 1.607242, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.290591, "energy": 23.391116, "activity_lines": [ 0.031213, 0.031058, 0.030844, 0.030351 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }