{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f5a52fcf-27f1-46d9-b011-59f9079e6916", "symbol": "000421", "name": "Nanjing Public Utilities Development Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.926, "architecture_energy": 42.644, "architecture_maturity": 94.022, "architecture_confidence": 62.898, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.06, "rotation_up": 27.06, "upward_expansion": 18.82, "deceleration": 66.95, "rotation_down": 39.37, "downward_expansion": 66.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.306, 5.292512, 5.510545, 5.789669 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.33, "trend_reference": 6.180705, "distance_from_trend": -0.137639, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.863306, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.090957, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.39972, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.25766, "excess_performance": -0.26506, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.137639, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089256, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.090957, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.163371, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.203997, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043187, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.25766, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.27582, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 38449721, "relative_activity": 1.131268, "balance": 0.27582, "dry_up": 1.102992, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061138, "annualized_volatility": 0.267442, "from_high_reference": -0.348411, "from_low_reference": 0.059642 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.180705, "fair_value_reference": 5.863306, "structural_low": 5.03, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.022608, "positive_rate": 0.6875, "directional_follow_through": 0.3125, "median_excess_return": 0.036432, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.218679, "worst_return": -0.14313, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.110833, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.020119, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.142276, "worst_return": -0.124835, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.108516, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.114434, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.268878, "worst_return": 0.000171, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.03271, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.065495, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.107784, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.1475, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": 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5.18, "volume": 29700179, "typical_volume": 47551418.3, "trend": 6.390039, "fair_value": 5.862012, "relative_strength": -29.178372, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.35468, "energy": 86.799912, "activity_lines": [ 5.226667, 5.416307, 5.75352, 6.047615 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.38, "volume": 35704090, "typical_volume": 47184147.8, "trend": 6.342039, "fair_value": 5.862985, "relative_strength": -18.454354, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.367633, "energy": 69.623425, "activity_lines": [ 5.264667, 5.374183, 5.686705, 5.982451 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.16, "volume": 45126284, "typical_volume": 38954219.2, "trend": 6.282705, "fair_value": 5.862549, "relative_strength": -21.413916, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.193556, "energy": 60.44602, "activity_lines": [ 5.238, 5.307737, 5.60708, 5.90619 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.38, "volume": 30674643, "typical_volume": 34949246.5, "trend": 6.233372, "fair_value": 5.862839, "relative_strength": -16.126178, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.831697, "energy": 53.219044, "activity_lines": [ 5.291333, 5.298989, 5.557313, 5.847951 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.33, "volume": 38449721, "typical_volume": 33988168.25, "trend": 6.180705, "fair_value": 5.863306, "relative_strength": -20.39972, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.926123, "energy": 42.644164, "activity_lines": [ 5.306, 5.292512, 5.510545, 5.789669 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }