{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f5a86171-297b-4e43-9d5b-d73c18a429e6", "symbol": "TIPCO", "name": "Tipco Foods Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 60.115, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 15.605, "architecture_energy": 25.778, "architecture_maturity": 32.903, "architecture_confidence": 52.743, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.82, "rotation_up": 42.8, "upward_expansion": 32.11, "deceleration": 50.1, "rotation_down": 14.17, "downward_expansion": 42.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.483333, 6.353636, 6.281429, 6.410668 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 6.75, "trend_reference": 6.674648, "distance_from_trend": 0.011289, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.476738, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.203703, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -20.509874, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.105042, "excess_performance": -0.297367, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.011289, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066884, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.203703, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.094495, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.205099, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.132706, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.105042, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 10.136112, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7934900, "relative_activity": 10.029704, "balance": 10.136112, "dry_up": 3.054643, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038177, "annualized_volatility": 0.208104, "from_high_reference": -0.235036, "from_low_reference": 0.134454 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.674648, "fair_value_reference": 8.476738, "structural_low": 5.95, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": 0.008722, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.076087, "worst_return": -0.041026, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.035533, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.035076, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.111185, "worst_return": -0.058704, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.055628, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.133937, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.133863, "worst_return": -0.030457, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.379887, "energy": 62.088455, "activity_lines": [ 6.08, 6.091818, 6.25895, 6.521898 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 6.35, "volume": 1979500, "typical_volume": 445680.0, "trend": 6.825188, "fair_value": 8.573541, "relative_strength": -28.79674, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.541819, "energy": 44.044204, "activity_lines": [ 6.18, 6.131818, 6.244745, 6.488464 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.45, "volume": 1049900, "typical_volume": 409705.0, "trend": 6.785493, "fair_value": 8.54883, "relative_strength": -27.60241, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.882688, "energy": 27.313856, "activity_lines": [ 6.29, 6.190909, 6.247619, 6.464259 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.35, "volume": 494900, "typical_volume": 401455.0, "trend": 6.742465, "fair_value": 8.522902, "relative_strength": -28.106771, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.711183, "energy": 27.991904, "activity_lines": [ 6.336667, 6.226364, 6.244762, 6.436162 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.3, "volume": 186900, "typical_volume": 403105.0, "trend": 6.702699, "fair_value": 8.495506, "relative_strength": -27.041392, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.539605, "energy": 22.425368, "activity_lines": [ 6.343333, 6.250909, 6.240238, 6.407616 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.75, "volume": 7934900, "typical_volume": 791140.0, "trend": 6.674648, "fair_value": 8.476738, "relative_strength": -20.509874, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 15.604624, "energy": 25.777575, "activity_lines": [ 6.483333, 6.353636, 6.281429, 6.410668 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }