{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f5aab2a5-4a65-412e-b724-03e3a7c67781", "symbol": "METROBRAND", "name": "Metro Brands Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -20.33, "architecture_energy": 13.27, "architecture_maturity": 32.412, "architecture_confidence": 65.547, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.71, "rotation_up": 26.32, "upward_expansion": 24.69, "deceleration": 55.06, "rotation_down": 45.24, "downward_expansion": 31.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 1018.21333, 1027.820004, 1029.691907, 1022.687354 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 972.5, "trend_reference": 1020.441213, "distance_from_trend": -0.046981, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1135.341748, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.14343, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.445216, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.061021, "excess_performance": -0.017312, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.046981, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033028, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.14343, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056025, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.094452, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048763, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.061021, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.883735, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 508455, "relative_activity": 3.010599, "balance": 0.883735, "dry_up": 1.757056, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054277, "annualized_volatility": 0.261634, "from_high_reference": -0.272392, "from_low_reference": 0.101359 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1020.441213, "fair_value_reference": 1135.341748, "structural_low": 883.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.034212, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.022174, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.070835, "worst_return": -0.082201, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.04221, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.058738, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.069764, "worst_return": -0.186397, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.031754, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.019072, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.086058, "worst_return": 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-0.1156, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.070936, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003222, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.069851, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.130457, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.082221, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.034319, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01782, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.069997, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.013469, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.056008, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1068.321899, "volume": 403023, "typical_volume": 775059.3, "trend": 885.901864, "fair_value": 738.445693, "relative_strength": 17.293912, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", 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"date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1035.699951, "volume": 79919, "typical_volume": 163195.3, "trend": 1024.832465, "fair_value": 1135.833895, "relative_strength": -3.06173, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.282244, "energy": 31.38064, "activity_lines": [ 1042.473332, 1039.065461, 1034.238097, 1026.063642 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 972.5, "volume": 508455, "typical_volume": 168888.3, "trend": 1020.441213, "fair_value": 1135.341748, "relative_strength": -9.445216, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.330449, "energy": 13.270361, "activity_lines": [ 1018.21333, 1027.820004, 1029.691907, 1022.687354 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }