{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f5b864ec-bfbd-4c9d-85dd-90bd7af45712", "symbol": "FICT3", "name": "Fictor Alimentos S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -71.231, "architecture_energy": 68.381, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.66, "rotation_up": 29.99, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.99, "rotation_down": 59.2, "downward_expansion": 87.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.204667, 0.212545, 0.237286, 0.302065 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.2, "trend_reference": 0.46, "distance_from_trend": -0.565217, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.349565, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.914878, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -87.961368, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.733333, "excess_performance": -0.676285, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.565217, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.61656, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.914878, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036725, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.879614, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014308, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.733333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.132214, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 49900, "relative_activity": 0.355325, "balance": 0.132214, "dry_up": 0.465518, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.165385, "annualized_volatility": 1.43058, "from_high_reference": -0.944444, "from_low_reference": 0.111111 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.46, "fair_value_reference": 2.349565, "structural_low": 0.18, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.06192, "positive_rate": 0.322581, "directional_follow_through": 0.677419, "median_excess_return": -0.070554, "regime_survival": 0.870968, "best_return": 0.254545, "worst_return": -0.6, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.074822, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.117677, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.302655, "worst_return": -0.72807, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.130435, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.22541, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.231502, "worst_return": -0.815789, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.177159, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.207582, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.709524, "worst_return": -0.938053, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-08-11", "end": "2023-08-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.044534, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-09-01", "end": "2023-09-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-09-22", "end": "2023-12-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.073913, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-05", "end": "2024-02-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.087156, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.108247, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.023256, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.074074, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.105528, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.171519, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.065789, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.121681, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.097744, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028986, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.941003, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.35, "volume": 50200, "typical_volume": 108475.0, "trend": 2.474664, "fair_value": 2.957342, "relative_strength": -4.741472, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper 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"energy": 68.266196, "activity_lines": [ 0.231333, 0.237636, 0.293429, 0.442688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.21, "volume": 273800, "typical_volume": 286190.0, "trend": 0.705333, "fair_value": 2.409821, "relative_strength": -89.716904, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.332377, "energy": 70.358037, "activity_lines": [ 0.222667, 0.230364, 0.279238, 0.406473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.21, "volume": 85400, "typical_volume": 211845.0, "trend": 0.637333, "fair_value": 2.394565, "relative_strength": -89.021886, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.49285, "energy": 69.618985, "activity_lines": [ 0.216667, 0.224909, 0.266048, 0.374516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.2, "volume": 71700, "typical_volume": 170405.0, "trend": 0.579, "fair_value": 2.379244, "relative_strength": -89.109023, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.350393, "energy": 70.900482, "activity_lines": [ 0.21, 0.219455, 0.254714, 0.346301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.21, "volume": 54500, "typical_volume": 151580.0, "trend": 0.516667, "fair_value": 2.364116, "relative_strength": -88.297919, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.140648, "energy": 67.939512, "activity_lines": [ 0.208667, 0.217091, 0.245762, 0.322495 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.2, "volume": 49900, "typical_volume": 140435.0, "trend": 0.46, "fair_value": 2.349565, "relative_strength": -87.961368, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.231469, "energy": 68.381106, "activity_lines": [ 0.204667, 0.212545, 0.237286, 0.302065 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }