{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "f5bf1d30-2ecb-4efd-b23d-5e949ef9c758",
    "symbol": "XHB",
    "name": "State Street SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF",
    "exchange": "MEX",
    "country": "MX",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^MXX",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch",
    "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch",
    "confidence": 48.82,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_up",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up",
    "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": 39.872,
    "architecture_energy": 78.225,
    "architecture_maturity": 10.512,
    "architecture_confidence": 62.782,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 20.0,
        "rotation_up": 76.21,
        "upward_expansion": 60.99,
        "deceleration": 17.8,
        "rotation_down": 14.0,
        "downward_expansion": 33.65
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        1902.408,
        1866.216573,
        1815.917181,
        1820.72297
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 1910.0,
    "trend_reference": 1851.84443,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.031404,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 1893.744693,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.008584,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -2.989421,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": -0.043652,
    "excess_performance": 0.011015,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.031404,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.023616,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.008584,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.079435,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.029894,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.170591,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.043652,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.007694,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 0,
      "relative_activity": 0.0,
      "balance": 0.007694,
      "dry_up": 0.001424,
      "accumulation_observations": 0,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.011283,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.294852,
      "from_high_reference": -0.144536,
      "from_low_reference": 0.140139
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 1851.84443,
      "fair_value_reference": 1893.744693,
      "structural_low": 1675.234253,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 9,
        "median_return": 0.0,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.034744,
        "regime_survival": 0.444444,
        "best_return": 0.053152,
        "worst_return": -0.165933,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.064691,
        "positive_rate": 0.25,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.25,
        "median_excess_return": -0.077424,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.053321,
        "worst_return": -0.142719,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.05347,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.014467,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.107881,
        "worst_return": -0.015075,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": 0.159299,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.107243,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.159299,
        "worst_return": 0.159299,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-01-17",
        "end": "2025-03-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.037086,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-03-14",
        "end": "2025-08-08",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.094636,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-08-15",
        "end": "2025-09-26",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.011792,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-10-03",
        "end": "2025-10-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.053757,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-10-17",
        "end": "2025-11-14",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.019305,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-11-21",
        "end": "2025-12-05",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.04365,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-12-12",
        "end": "2025-12-19",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-12-26",
        "end": "2026-01-09",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.005964,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-01-16",
        "end": "2026-01-23",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-01-30",
        "end": "2026-02-06",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.049895,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-02-13",
        "end": "2026-03-13",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-03-20",
        "end": "2026-03-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.000911,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-04-03",
        "end": "2026-07-10",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.042268,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-07-17",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "typical_volume": 1.65,
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      },
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        "date": "2026-07-24",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
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        "volume": 0,
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        "stage": 4,
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    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}