{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f5bfb265-b208-4fec-a53e-e0aee199ee3e", "symbol": "ERIX", "name": "SG ETN European Renewable Energy", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 58.67, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 14.024, "architecture_energy": 16.961, "architecture_maturity": 39.571, "architecture_confidence": 80.518, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.2, "rotation_up": 31.55, "upward_expansion": 55.29, "deceleration": 73.36, "rotation_down": 18.4, "downward_expansion": 25.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.4644, 17.362618, 17.740124, 17.612826 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 17.566, "trend_reference": 17.233733, "distance_from_trend": 0.01928, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.020709, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.252861, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.228736, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.072274, "excess_performance": -0.098617, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.01928, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064801, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.252861, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088111, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.012287, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.231967, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.072274, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.631258, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 1.631258, "dry_up": 0.041976, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018629, "annualized_volatility": 0.269979, "from_high_reference": -0.086056, "from_low_reference": 0.640149 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.233733, "fair_value_reference": 14.020709, "structural_low": 15.21, "invalidation": "A sustained loss 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"positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.513753, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.22668, "worst_return": -0.22668, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.037841, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.304878, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.000927, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.05075, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.169765, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.378527, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.036587, "active": true } ], 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"gate": "up", "direction": -4.064353, "energy": 40.569456, "activity_lines": [ 17.260533, 17.766218, 17.922, 17.484809 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 17.058001, "volume": 434, "typical_volume": 1118.8, "trend": 16.865667, "fair_value": 14.076234, "relative_strength": -1.307188, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -16.012877, "energy": 43.740931, "activity_lines": [ 17.1712, 17.567855, 17.872619, 17.502658 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.058001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1118.8, "trend": 16.9538, "fair_value": 14.058222, "relative_strength": -0.117508, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -15.751091, "energy": 53.387065, "activity_lines": [ 17.147867, 17.403419, 17.815238, 17.515067 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.566, "volume": 172, "typical_volume": 1124.4, "trend": 17.065733, "fair_value": 14.043465, "relative_strength": 2.791754, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -4.968722, "energy": 37.159386, "activity_lines": [ 17.285734, 17.3652, 17.798238, 17.554564 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.566, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1124.4, "trend": 17.1632, "fair_value": 14.028709, "relative_strength": 1.885299, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.742575, "energy": 21.200444, "activity_lines": [ 17.382267, 17.3516, 17.7732, 17.586839 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.566, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1024.4, "trend": 17.233733, "fair_value": 14.020709, "relative_strength": -1.228736, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.024274, "energy": 16.961103, "activity_lines": [ 17.4644, 17.362618, 17.740124, 17.612826 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }