{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f5c42da1-2472-4328-83e3-5a7471e1062d", "symbol": "PMAX", "name": "Powell Max Limited Class A Ordinary Shares", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.934, "architecture_energy": 66.403, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.87, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.58, "rotation_up": 29.97, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.83, "rotation_down": 57.77, "downward_expansion": 87.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.676667, 1.802727, 2.14649, 3.907308 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.66, "trend_reference": 8.210733, "distance_from_trend": -0.797826, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 63.426238, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.973828, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -90.55389, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.936398, "excess_performance": -1.123852, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.797826, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.45145, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.973828, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028739, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.905539, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051208, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.936398, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.067874, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 278609, "relative_activity": 0.020473, "balance": 4.067874, "dry_up": 0.375768, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.416895, "annualized_volatility": 1.880954, "from_high_reference": -0.968077, "from_low_reference": 0.160839 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.210733, "fair_value_reference": 63.426238, "structural_low": 1.43, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.107843, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.119651, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.137143, "worst_return": -0.487437, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.64533, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.860455, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.64533, "worst_return": -0.64533, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.520453, "energy": 69.662886, "activity_lines": [ 1.951333, 2.181091, 2.727076, 5.994163 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.91, "volume": 18828852, "typical_volume": 15307809.85, "trend": 10.203733, "fair_value": 65.317755, "relative_strength": -89.93774, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.135634, "energy": 66.185536, "activity_lines": [ 1.906667, 2.076, 2.500571, 5.415234 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.6, "volume": 778353, "typical_volume": 15320302.2, "trend": 9.343733, "fair_value": 64.674141, "relative_strength": -91.083734, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.780366, "energy": 67.67398, "activity_lines": [ 1.771333, 1.952182, 2.338305, 4.860155 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.65, "volume": 568467, "typical_volume": 15278801.1, "trend": 8.7354, "fair_value": 64.0439, "relative_strength": -90.496777, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.055398, "energy": 65.717051, "activity_lines": [ 1.697333, 1.866364, 2.231752, 4.363785 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.66, "volume": 278609, "typical_volume": 13608328.15, "trend": 8.210733, "fair_value": 63.426238, "relative_strength": -90.55389, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.934125, "energy": 66.402895, "activity_lines": [ 1.676667, 1.802727, 2.14649, 3.907308 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }