{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f5c4a2ff-ce75-413e-9434-fa62ded6f44e", "symbol": "VBTC", "name": "VanEck Bitcoin ETN A", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.845, "architecture_energy": 36.241, "architecture_maturity": 28.049, "architecture_confidence": 67.592, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.0, "rotation_up": 26.02, "upward_expansion": 16.98, "deceleration": 66.05, "rotation_down": 35.2, "downward_expansion": 62.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.266133, 29.051655, 30.374057, 31.012456 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 29.594999, "trend_reference": 32.2054, "distance_from_trend": -0.081055, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 35.721551, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.171509, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.331837, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.049554, "excess_performance": -0.102865, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.081055, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114584, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.171509, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.210124, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.283318, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088342, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.049554, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.328252, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2371, "relative_activity": 0.718528, "balance": 0.328252, "dry_up": 0.724817, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05574, "annualized_volatility": 0.37164, "from_high_reference": -0.478511, "from_low_reference": 0.089854 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.2054, "fair_value_reference": 35.721551, "structural_low": 27.155001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.083247, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.044048, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.156272, "worst_return": -0.086702, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.031673, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.083842, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.285435, "worst_return": -0.191105, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.195535, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.274229, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.388109, "worst_return": -0.352465, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.107225, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.060433, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.097048, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.077921, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.083029, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.13421, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.14373, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.074385, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.030564, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 12.999, "volume": 2484, "typical_volume": 10070.35, "trend": 13.5351, "fair_value": 16.174009, "relative_strength": 4.39373, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 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"date": "2026-07-10", "close": 29.533001, "volume": 1939, "typical_volume": 3987.7, "trend": 33.6868, "fair_value": 35.343526, "relative_strength": -29.172148, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.827009, "energy": 75.82334, "activity_lines": [ 28.807201, 29.736455, 31.307334, 32.024448 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 29.108, "volume": 3173, "typical_volume": 3901.05, "trend": 33.323367, "fair_value": 35.436737, "relative_strength": -29.270245, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.60521, "energy": 56.442295, "activity_lines": [ 28.917267, 29.366746, 31.048638, 31.729041 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.632, "volume": 2889, "typical_volume": 3730.45, "trend": 33.002, "fair_value": 35.533776, "relative_strength": -27.394936, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.958191, "energy": 46.132606, "activity_lines": [ 29.201867, 29.212546, 30.841929, 31.490888 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.593, "volume": 1134, "typical_volume": 3369.2, "trend": 32.6017, "fair_value": 35.624968, "relative_strength": -30.066952, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.613483, "energy": 40.513166, "activity_lines": [ 29.094867, 28.983546, 30.549834, 31.206437 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.594999, "volume": 2371, "typical_volume": 3299.8, "trend": 32.2054, "fair_value": 35.721551, "relative_strength": -28.331837, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.845292, "energy": 36.240994, "activity_lines": [ 29.266133, 29.051655, 30.374057, 31.012456 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }