{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f5c4bbc7-b081-4ef9-929e-7d4abd124c80", "symbol": "TIP1E", "name": "UBS Core BBG TIPS 1-10 UCITS ETF hEURacc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 68.915, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.45, "architecture_energy": 39.798, "architecture_maturity": 2.221, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.95, "rotation_up": 15.14, "upward_expansion": 7.27, "deceleration": 42.74, "rotation_down": 51.82, "downward_expansion": 78.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.9576, 11.966982, 11.989114, 11.994525 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 11.962, "trend_reference": 11.995133, "distance_from_trend": -0.002762, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.578231, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.033146, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.672789, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.000835, "excess_performance": -0.171727, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.002762, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000434, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.033146, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018388, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.146728, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035116, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.000835, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.131697, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 39469, "relative_activity": 0.34273, "balance": 0.131697, "dry_up": 0.46143, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.005517, "annualized_volatility": 0.027651, "from_high_reference": -0.018059, "from_low_reference": 0.031029 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.995133, "fair_value_reference": 11.578231, "structural_low": 11.868, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.003253, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": 0.008706, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.033867, "worst_return": -0.044662, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.003082, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.003193, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.031527, "worst_return": -0.05804, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.000701, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.054306, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.034609, "worst_return": -0.052578, "sufficient": 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"modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.957267, "energy": 22.736241, "activity_lines": [ 11.980133, 11.9916, 12.005771, 12.003234 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.994, "volume": 87094, "typical_volume": 121256.95, "trend": 11.993667, "fair_value": 11.560667, "relative_strength": -12.653543, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.354239, "energy": 10.829079, "activity_lines": [ 11.9844, 11.989345, 12.004324, 12.003346 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.948, "volume": 27231, "typical_volume": 120291.2, "trend": 11.994467, "fair_value": 11.566346, "relative_strength": -12.472409, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.945899, "energy": 23.828775, "activity_lines": [ 11.973867, 11.980545, 11.998867, 12.0004 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.936, "volume": 58760, "typical_volume": 116828.8, "trend": 11.9946, "fair_value": 11.572154, "relative_strength": -12.744976, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.306644, "energy": 32.074865, "activity_lines": [ 11.959467, 11.971055, 11.9926, 11.996628 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.962, "volume": 39469, "typical_volume": 115160.6, "trend": 11.995133, "fair_value": 11.578231, "relative_strength": -14.672789, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.449855, "energy": 39.797726, "activity_lines": [ 11.9576, 11.966982, 11.989114, 11.994525 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }