{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f5c8d629-cc5f-4841-b1a1-fb689fd5a2b8", "symbol": "2616", "name": "Shan-Loong Transportation Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 56.212, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.17, "architecture_energy": 32.41, "architecture_maturity": 50.497, "architecture_confidence": 87.41, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.58, "rotation_up": 26.38, "upward_expansion": 20.63, "deceleration": 44.2, "rotation_down": 40.9, "downward_expansion": 63.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.382451, 13.381464, 13.480758, 13.937342 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 13.4, "trend_reference": 14.29435, "distance_from_trend": -0.062567, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.324163, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.306568, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -32.664345, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.000165, "excess_performance": -0.441207, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.062567, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000448, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.306568, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056262, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.326643, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059184, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.000165, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.904397, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 470528, "relative_activity": 0.247743, "balance": 0.904397, "dry_up": 0.444131, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040196, "annualized_volatility": 0.755157, "from_high_reference": -0.426684, "from_low_reference": 0.049981 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.29435, "fair_value_reference": 19.324163, "structural_low": 12.859925, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": -0.008796, "positive_rate": 0.325, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.042947, "regime_survival": 0.925, "best_return": 0.317518, "worst_return": -0.1067, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.048781, "positive_rate": 0.153846, "directional_follow_through": 0.846154, "median_excess_return": -0.177629, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.055375, "worst_return": -0.187952, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.073134, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.307597, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.043478, "worst_return": -0.255422, 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13.35, "volume": 1037902, "typical_volume": 2885978.2, "trend": 14.273088, "fair_value": 19.531079, "relative_strength": -30.53597, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.383033, "energy": 36.351025, "activity_lines": [ 13.414461, 13.403329, 13.61584, 14.057081 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.3, "volume": 661183, "typical_volume": 2568598.8, "trend": 14.282867, "fair_value": 19.427739, "relative_strength": -31.654076, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.042145, "energy": 39.534088, "activity_lines": [ 13.375269, 13.382861, 13.533175, 13.994301 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 13.4, "volume": 470528, "typical_volume": 1899259.45, "trend": 14.29435, "fair_value": 19.324163, "relative_strength": -32.664345, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.170235, "energy": 32.41043, "activity_lines": [ 13.382451, 13.381464, 13.480758, 13.937342 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }