{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f5d38ee4-e227-4329-8738-f2fa99305f54", "symbol": "600569", "name": "Anyang Iron and Steel Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.997, "architecture_energy": 43.269, "architecture_maturity": 97.309, "architecture_confidence": 93.877, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.86, "rotation_up": 27.5, "upward_expansion": 19.34, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 41.36, "downward_expansion": 69.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.749333, 1.736727, 1.819238, 1.942516 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.78, "trend_reference": 2.103667, "distance_from_trend": -0.153858, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.994423, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.107511, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.364778, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.299213, "excess_performance": -0.256009, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.153858, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091289, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.107511, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.154391, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.183648, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038508, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.299213, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.423875, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 90571646, "relative_activity": 0.957897, "balance": 0.423875, "dry_up": 1.087951, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071305, "annualized_volatility": 0.404084, "from_high_reference": -0.375439, "from_low_reference": 0.10559 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.103667, "fair_value_reference": 1.994423, "structural_low": 1.61, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.01214, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.001174, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.194245, "worst_return": -0.126984, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.000134, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.037254, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.316901, "worst_return": -0.19774, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.037037, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.119403, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.28169, "worst_return": -0.164706, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.126437, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.069444, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.03125, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.008658, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.012987, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"activity_lines": [ 1.702667, 1.775818, 1.92219, 2.046667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.71, "volume": 85900393, "typical_volume": 141790432.25, "trend": 2.156333, "fair_value": 1.999167, "relative_strength": -19.609663, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.836028, "energy": 83.817242, "activity_lines": [ 1.694667, 1.751818, 1.886429, 2.016839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.68, "volume": 78812844, "typical_volume": 133078045.05, "trend": 2.136333, "fair_value": 1.997115, "relative_strength": -21.54014, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.793553, "energy": 66.259244, "activity_lines": [ 1.687333, 1.729636, 1.852619, 1.986108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.8, "volume": 156189361, "typical_volume": 124470238.1, "trend": 2.119333, "fair_value": 1.995833, "relative_strength": -15.744143, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.883936, "energy": 56.754291, "activity_lines": [ 1.726667, 1.734, 1.834714, 1.964409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.78, "volume": 90571646, "typical_volume": 94552554.9, "trend": 2.103667, "fair_value": 1.994423, "relative_strength": -18.364778, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.996989, "energy": 43.269043, "activity_lines": [ 1.749333, 1.736727, 1.819238, 1.942516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }