{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f5d77149-8e42-4673-adf0-9e7ba0a059e4", "symbol": "HYQ", "name": "Hypoport SE", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 58.801, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 5.296, "architecture_energy": 4.343, "architecture_maturity": 18.011, "architecture_confidence": 70.58, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 64.02, "rotation_up": 24.02, "upward_expansion": 35.04, "deceleration": 42.45, "rotation_down": 28.52, "downward_expansion": 40.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 85.113334, 85.007273, 83.756666, 83.568602 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 87.800003, "trend_reference": 85.84, "distance_from_trend": 0.022833, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 173.817949, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.494874, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -23.676065, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.010146, "excess_performance": -0.074786, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.022833, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.132535, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.494874, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.073964, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.236761, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.190731, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.010146, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.37098, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 45101, "relative_activity": 0.509504, "balance": 1.37098, "dry_up": 0.67803, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092124, "annualized_volatility": 0.537434, "from_high_reference": -0.550205, "from_low_reference": 0.28739 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 85.84, "fair_value_reference": 173.817949, "structural_low": 68.199997, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.033081, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.037941, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.155512, "worst_return": -0.258065, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.04626, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.031856, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.303239, "worst_return": -0.271429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.202343, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.229592, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.669004, "worst_return": -0.280605, "sufficient": true }, { 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"energy": 12.835764, "activity_lines": [ 85.619999, 83.72909, 82.638809, 84.677957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 86.800003, "volume": 73184, "typical_volume": 108481.5, "trend": 90.113333, "fair_value": 175.551282, "relative_strength": -24.554694, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.35429, "energy": 14.464057, "activity_lines": [ 86.516667, 84.510909, 83.049285, 84.381613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 83.449997, "volume": 59410, "typical_volume": 106229.55, "trend": 88.681667, "fair_value": 174.874039, "relative_strength": -26.799788, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -8.415347, "energy": 12.994001, "activity_lines": [ 85.81, 84.51909, 83.165476, 83.95172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 82.15, "volume": 62380, "typical_volume": 101560.25, "trend": 87.206667, "fair_value": 174.310898, "relative_strength": -28.029885, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.562723, "energy": 7.586076, "activity_lines": [ 84.48, 84.278181, 83.197618, 83.530322 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 87.800003, "volume": 45101, "typical_volume": 88519.35, "trend": 85.84, "fair_value": 173.817949, "relative_strength": -23.676065, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 5.296107, "energy": 4.342997, "activity_lines": [ 85.113334, 85.007273, 83.756666, 83.568602 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }