{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f5d89373-9a0d-46d6-9e91-f99dce0aeaf2", "symbol": "UL", "name": "Unilever PLC ADR", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 59.51, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 28.922, "architecture_energy": 31.226, "architecture_maturity": 3.404, "architecture_confidence": 66.384, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.35, "rotation_up": 63.19, "upward_expansion": 46.93, "deceleration": 25.57, "rotation_down": 16.73, "downward_expansion": 17.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 62.170321, 61.473171, 59.962958, 60.411995 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 62.96, "trend_reference": 61.87404, "distance_from_trend": 0.017551, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 60.697366, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.037277, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.497946, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.111923, "excess_performance": -0.237547, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.017551, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024927, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.037277, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075294, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.124979, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.095546, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.111923, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.177932, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20826542, "relative_activity": 0.946656, "balance": 2.177932, "dry_up": 1.147614, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043061, "annualized_volatility": 0.250489, "from_high_reference": -0.14574, "from_low_reference": 0.15687 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 61.87404, "fair_value_reference": 60.697366, "structural_low": 54.422707, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.021517, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.037977, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.059746, "worst_return": -0.134847, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.002206, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.086445, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.098819, "worst_return": -0.23298, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.060162, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.054088, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.23372, "worst_return": 0.002463, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 6.707235, "energy": 25.888386, "activity_lines": [ 61.302299, 60.021984, 59.083052, 60.385621 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 60.430811, "volume": 17777675, "typical_volume": 21059397.65, "trend": 61.914505, "fair_value": 60.573225, "relative_strength": -12.954158, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.164276, "energy": 19.966881, "activity_lines": [ 61.180507, 60.288297, 59.199176, 60.279953 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 62.880173, "volume": 42761949, "typical_volume": 22346388.35, "trend": 61.879016, "fair_value": 60.635171, "relative_strength": -9.987217, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 12.050575, "energy": 27.028633, "activity_lines": [ 61.739782, 60.923751, 59.575944, 60.342254 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 62.96, "volume": 20826542, "typical_volume": 22000125.35, "trend": 61.87404, "fair_value": 60.697366, "relative_strength": -12.497946, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.921987, "energy": 31.226458, "activity_lines": [ 62.170321, 61.473171, 59.962958, 60.411995 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }