{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f5dacb32-95f3-46c0-b466-beb0fad0e7fc", "symbol": "MTC", "name": "Muangthai Capital Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 49.794, "architecture_energy": 65.627, "architecture_maturity": 17.168, "architecture_confidence": 56.705, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.63, "rotation_up": 76.51, "upward_expansion": 65.48, "deceleration": 19.28, "rotation_down": 17.21, "downward_expansion": 21.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.05, 33.009091, 31.442334, 31.226032 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 35.0, "trend_reference": 31.401392, "distance_from_trend": 0.1146, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 39.786995, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.120316, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.085402, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.024479, "excess_performance": -0.167846, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.1146, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013338, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.120316, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.135723, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.110854, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.164286, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.024479, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.167063, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 52806100, "relative_activity": 1.004075, "balance": 1.167063, "dry_up": 1.240641, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059341, "annualized_volatility": 0.376122, "from_high_reference": -0.196715, "from_low_reference": 0.321291 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.401392, "fair_value_reference": 39.786995, "structural_low": 26.489243, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.011447, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.019435, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.014925, "worst_return": -0.135803, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.025641, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.028433, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.004975, "worst_return": -0.22619, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.119403, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.056553, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.121795, "worst_return": -0.303571, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.097701, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.074646, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.035714, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035714, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.163522, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": 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"regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.430341, "energy": 55.727289, "activity_lines": [ 32.483333, 31.118182, 30.261011, 30.638568 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.25, "volume": 86199600, "typical_volume": 57192410.0, "trend": 31.114823, "fair_value": 39.800188, "relative_strength": -18.05731, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.55091, "energy": 58.248039, "activity_lines": [ 32.933333, 31.677273, 30.57926, 30.779681 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.25, "volume": 44092500, "typical_volume": 54766155.0, "trend": 31.216725, "fair_value": 39.802968, "relative_strength": -14.091948, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 46.465889, "energy": 62.884576, "activity_lines": [ 33.466667, 32.331818, 30.982951, 30.98195 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.0, "volume": 52806100, "typical_volume": 52591795.0, "trend": 31.401392, "fair_value": 39.786995, "relative_strength": -11.085402, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 49.793798, "energy": 65.627457, "activity_lines": [ 34.05, 33.009091, 31.442334, 31.226032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }