{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f5db6e8a-2047-470e-ba59-ce689ec113ad", "symbol": "CSUS", "name": "iShares VII PLC - iShares MSCI USA UCITS ETF USD (Acc)", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 91.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 88.739, "architecture_energy": 68.022, "architecture_maturity": 60.292, "architecture_confidence": 83.205, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.37, "rotation_up": 59.01, "upward_expansion": 84.52, "deceleration": 64.15, "rotation_down": 27.6, "downward_expansion": 11.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 784.313322, 779.703629, 771.744761, 756.237634 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 804.799988, "trend_reference": 738.643333, "distance_from_trend": 0.089565, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 605.179165, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.329854, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.092634, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.138653, "excess_performance": 0.05577, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.089565, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034437, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.329854, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00843, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.010926, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068902, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.138653, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.523477, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8220, "relative_activity": 2.287782, "balance": 3.523477, "dry_up": 1.216115, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017004, "annualized_volatility": 0.128321, "from_high_reference": -0.00186, "from_low_reference": 0.227765 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 738.643333, "fair_value_reference": 605.179165, "structural_low": 658.299988, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.013395, "positive_rate": 0.702703, "directional_follow_through": 0.702703, "median_excess_return": 0.00406, "regime_survival": 0.783784, "best_return": 0.059427, "worst_return": -0.113933, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.035867, "positive_rate": 0.785714, "directional_follow_through": 0.785714, "median_excess_return": 0.009906, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.133963, "worst_return": -0.068673, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.069227, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.010823, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.164513, "worst_return": -0.183924, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.593136, "energy": 53.553563, "activity_lines": [ 774.83999, 774.276358, 766.48, 751.777419 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 804.799988, "volume": 8220, "typical_volume": 3593.0, "trend": 738.643333, "fair_value": 605.179165, "relative_strength": 1.092634, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.739005, "energy": 68.02204, "activity_lines": [ 784.313322, 779.703629, 771.744761, 756.237634 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }