{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f5df22e8-4b28-45b7-bfd2-c731fbfc02ab", "symbol": "DTF", "name": "DTF Tax-Free Income 2028 Term Fund Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 61.886, "architecture_energy": 33.604, "architecture_maturity": 19.764, "architecture_confidence": 60.627, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.9, "rotation_up": 50.72, "upward_expansion": 76.27, "deceleration": 61.2, "rotation_down": 20.43, "downward_expansion": 2.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.488839, 11.479187, 11.442922, 11.417948 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 11.545, "trend_reference": 11.384835, "distance_from_trend": 0.014068, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.656886, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.083337, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.735432, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.021804, "excess_performance": -0.103821, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.014068, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009533, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.083337, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00304, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.087354, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.021804, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.722707, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36285, "relative_activity": 0.819741, "balance": 0.722707, "dry_up": 0.723788, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.011401, "annualized_volatility": 0.038993, "from_high_reference": -0.004741, "from_low_reference": 0.059818 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.384835, "fair_value_reference": 10.656886, "structural_low": 11.204057, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.003284, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.01626, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.022939, "worst_return": -0.024632, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.007488, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.023073, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.034373, "worst_return": -0.034928, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.031037, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.048403, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.049043, "worst_return": -0.038343, "sufficient": true }, { 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.725933, "energy": 48.751797, "activity_lines": [ 11.489699, 11.465542, 11.426367, 11.403438 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.42, "volume": 42213, "typical_volume": 44639.2, "trend": 11.373588, "fair_value": 10.645291, "relative_strength": -6.821799, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.76827, "energy": 28.542902, "activity_lines": [ 11.466848, 11.46193, 11.428823, 11.406889 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.545, "volume": 36285, "typical_volume": 44264.0, "trend": 11.384835, "fair_value": 10.656886, "relative_strength": -8.735432, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.886374, "energy": 33.604004, "activity_lines": [ 11.488839, 11.479187, 11.442922, 11.417948 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }