{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f5e57be9-25c7-44bf-b427-b159ee57bf9a", "symbol": "2623", "name": "Hong Kong Gold Industry Group Limited", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 70.23, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -72.183, "architecture_energy": 70.455, "architecture_maturity": 18.439, "architecture_confidence": 85.075, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.55, "rotation_up": 14.54, "upward_expansion": 15.44, "deceleration": 37.91, "rotation_down": 72.08, "downward_expansion": 93.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.067333, 4.225182, 4.515738, 4.687622 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 3.9, "trend_reference": 4.758909, "distance_from_trend": -0.180484, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.704374, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.288231, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.631459, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.07076, "excess_performance": 0.086051, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.180484, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028082, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.288231, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.251686, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.026315, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.707169, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.07076, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.596743, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9499719, "relative_activity": 1.096349, "balance": 0.596743, "dry_up": 0.913412, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.125049, "annualized_volatility": 0.783916, "from_high_reference": -0.423929, "from_low_reference": 7.210526 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.758909, "fair_value_reference": 1.704374, "structural_low": 3.45, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": -0.035715, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.055636, "regime_survival": 0.897436, "best_return": 1.207792, "worst_return": -0.43274, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.119403, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.076691, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.409736, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.300595, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.212362, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 9.425532, "worst_return": -0.476562, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012658, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.142857, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.214286, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.403846, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 4.721519, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": 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"volume": 7565500, "typical_volume": 9408279.1, "trend": 4.797076, "fair_value": 1.660688, "relative_strength": 10.240694, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.760303, "energy": 57.311765, "activity_lines": [ 4.297333, 4.405273, 4.700857, 4.793169 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 4.035, "volume": 7632202, "typical_volume": 9342953.4, "trend": 4.773909, "fair_value": 1.682899, "relative_strength": 6.051387, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.254604, "energy": 67.214793, "activity_lines": [ 4.183, 4.318727, 4.610619, 4.744003 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 3.9, "volume": 9499719, "typical_volume": 8664867.75, "trend": 4.758909, "fair_value": 1.704374, "relative_strength": -2.631459, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.183211, "energy": 70.455034, "activity_lines": [ 4.067333, 4.225182, 4.515738, 4.687622 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }