{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f5e862e7-facb-463b-a768-9bf407cb7271", "symbol": "BAN", "name": "BasicNet S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 74.129, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -33.679, "architecture_energy": 57.941, "architecture_maturity": 7.345, "architecture_confidence": 69.758, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.88, "rotation_up": 16.43, "upward_expansion": 20.38, "deceleration": 43.5, "rotation_down": 67.66, "downward_expansion": 59.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.351333, 6.598364, 6.804351, 6.783292 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.5, "trend_reference": 6.783605, "distance_from_trend": -0.041807, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.753271, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.129792, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.594804, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.069899, "excess_performance": -0.240791, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.041807, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01216, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.129792, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.131914, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.185948, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060685, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.069899, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.978301, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 180030, "relative_activity": 1.212706, "balance": 0.978301, "dry_up": 0.946243, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071361, "annualized_volatility": 0.340674, "from_high_reference": -0.147507, "from_low_reference": 0.148948 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.783605, "fair_value_reference": 5.753271, "structural_low": 5.657348, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.015504, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.025555, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.058917, "worst_return": -0.060396, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.012931, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.021627, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.132308, "worst_return": -0.133929, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.014286, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.129414, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.072072, "worst_return": -0.066337, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025526, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.060172, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004093, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.031165, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.067227, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.079618, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.28088, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.070461, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.09389, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.055195, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 4.463536, "volume": 33518, "typical_volume": 40061.7, "trend": 4.917421, "fair_value": 4.386413, "relative_strength": -15.086136, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.564523, "energy": 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30.80512, "activity_lines": [ 7.132667, 7.095091, 6.996211, 6.928695 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 6.89, "volume": 33739, "typical_volume": 164928.4, "trend": 6.909632, "fair_value": 5.706814, "relative_strength": -14.370423, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.50325, "energy": 14.536329, "activity_lines": [ 7.049333, 7.061636, 7.00322, 6.926817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.5, "volume": 84914, "typical_volume": 159640.95, "trend": 6.888455, "fair_value": 5.718833, "relative_strength": -17.411918, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.884169, "energy": 18.094165, "activity_lines": [ 6.840667, 6.963273, 6.971971, 6.900389 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.08, "volume": 155788, "typical_volume": 158550.45, "trend": 6.850995, "fair_value": 5.72881, "relative_strength": -21.983414, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -46.621713, "energy": 48.818083, "activity_lines": [ 6.548, 6.798545, 6.90081, 6.84823 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.16, "volume": 141159, "typical_volume": 148621.3, "trend": 6.815548, "fair_value": 5.739685, "relative_strength": -20.934039, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.373321, "energy": 60.667411, "activity_lines": [ 6.36, 6.662545, 6.837587, 6.80365 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.5, "volume": 180030, "typical_volume": 148453.1, "trend": 6.783605, "fair_value": 5.753271, "relative_strength": -18.594804, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.679482, "energy": 57.941212, "activity_lines": [ 6.351333, 6.598364, 6.804351, 6.783292 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }