{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f5e8f62e-bd8f-4ab0-9f05-ece69cb0a83c", "symbol": "SEM", "name": "Semperit Aktiengesellschaft Holding", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 19.504, "architecture_energy": 12.348, "architecture_maturity": 48.355, "architecture_confidence": 75.382, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.49, "rotation_up": 28.94, "upward_expansion": 51.72, "deceleration": 85.03, "rotation_down": 22.97, "downward_expansion": 20.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.81, 14.834545, 14.909048, 14.713462 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 14.9, "trend_reference": 14.317667, "distance_from_trend": 0.040672, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.969928, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.148811, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.213266, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.132219, "excess_performance": -0.042028, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.040672, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050324, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.148811, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005313, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.112133, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062385, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.132219, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.173096, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14741, "relative_activity": 0.317648, "balance": 1.173096, "dry_up": 0.63243, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037945, "annualized_volatility": 0.35335, "from_high_reference": -0.056962, "from_low_reference": 0.330357 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.317667, "fair_value_reference": 12.969928, "structural_low": 11.2, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.028708, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.037723, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": -0.010786, "worst_return": -0.16046, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.061688, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.022084, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.027778, "worst_return": -0.164138, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.118161, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.246751, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.090909, "worst_return": -0.273752, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.017094, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.042017, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.036015, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.003135, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.046154, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.092683, "active": 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"stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.082277, "energy": 80.805864, "activity_lines": [ 15.07, 15.063636, 14.846, 14.443441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 14.85, "volume": 4107, "typical_volume": 80676.45, "trend": 13.971, "fair_value": 13.018204, "relative_strength": -12.449454, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.943332, "energy": 59.261962, "activity_lines": [ 14.983333, 15.03, 14.883143, 14.504215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 14.4, "volume": 8572, "typical_volume": 79966.1, "trend": 14.020333, "fair_value": 13.005576, "relative_strength": -13.578914, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.18137, "energy": 21.204654, "activity_lines": [ 14.776667, 14.915455, 14.870524, 14.531892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.95, "volume": 54444, "typical_volume": 81034.6, "trend": 14.107333, "fair_value": 12.99852, "relative_strength": -8.150895, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.95474, "energy": 20.28355, "activity_lines": [ 14.806667, 14.91, 14.903619, 14.591871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.85, "volume": 34949, "typical_volume": 80477.0, "trend": 14.189, "fair_value": 12.9898, "relative_strength": -9.668503, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.261701, "energy": 14.742652, "activity_lines": [ 14.796667, 14.887273, 14.920095, 14.639785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.7, "volume": 13262, "typical_volume": 78108.65, "trend": 14.269, "fair_value": 12.979351, "relative_strength": -10.138031, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.780314, "energy": 12.977704, "activity_lines": [ 14.76, 14.84, 14.911667, 14.672753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.9, "volume": 14741, "typical_volume": 46406.7, "trend": 14.317667, "fair_value": 12.969928, "relative_strength": -11.213266, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.504475, "energy": 12.348071, "activity_lines": [ 14.81, 14.834545, 14.909048, 14.713462 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }