{ "ticker": { "uuid": "f5edfe56-5824-4fa8-8cb4-7d06bd3526a7", "symbol": "XRX", "name": "Xerox Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 50.149, "architecture_energy": 26.215, "architecture_maturity": 51.796, "architecture_confidence": 92.758, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.46, "rotation_up": 34.78, "upward_expansion": 57.07, "deceleration": 85.1, "rotation_down": 24.98, "downward_expansion": 18.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.94, 2.949127, 2.857743, 2.605069 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.24, "trend_reference": 2.363959, "distance_from_trend": 0.370582, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.492242, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.567553, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.581723, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.414472, "excess_performance": 0.227018, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.370582, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064283, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.567553, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.099405, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.055817, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.344558, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.414472, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.686465, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16773531, "relative_activity": 0.627685, "balance": 2.686465, "dry_up": 0.784807, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.170068, "annualized_volatility": 1.126216, "from_high_reference": -0.239859, "from_low_reference": 1.722689 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.363959, "fair_value_reference": 7.492242, "structural_low": 1.19, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.005639, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.045126, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.043785, "worst_return": -0.15146, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.081894, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.223137, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.042581, "worst_return": -0.206369, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.114388, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.264589, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.135806, "worst_return": -0.364582, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.224827, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.481318, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.196724, "worst_return": -0.646378, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-11-03", "end": "2023-11-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015726, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-11-24", "end": "2023-12-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.087491, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2023-12-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022417, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.10311, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.380734, "energy": 23.195787, "activity_lines": [ 2.872908, 2.996122, 2.712919, 2.489317 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.58, "volume": 9990442, "typical_volume": 25288842.65, "trend": 2.321124, "fair_value": 7.618137, "relative_strength": -13.177103, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.500589, "energy": 22.611387, "activity_lines": [ 2.754918, 2.918723, 2.733365, 2.506368 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.95, "volume": 48282121, "typical_volume": 26803116.2, "trend": 2.339016, "fair_value": 7.553939, "relative_strength": -0.123542, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.899749, "energy": 20.518432, "activity_lines": [ 2.788, 2.908225, 2.784891, 2.546941 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.24, "volume": 16773531, "typical_volume": 26722860.2, "trend": 2.363959, "fair_value": 7.492242, "relative_strength": 5.581723, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.149328, "energy": 26.215405, "activity_lines": [ 2.94, 2.949127, 2.857743, 2.605069 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }